The Condo Disaster & National Market Update

[00:00:00] Welcome to the Canadian Real Estate Investor, where host Daniel Foch and Nick Hill navigate the market and provide the tools and insights to build your real estate portfolio.

[00:00:12] After a prolonged industry slowdown, all eyes are on whether or not falling interest rates will breathe new life into the real estate market and the economy.

[00:00:23] From Calgary's remarkable emergence as the top market to watch to the significant challenges facing Toronto's condo developments, we're really seeing a tale of two markets unfold across the country.

[00:00:36] While some developers and investors are struggling to stay afloat, others are finding innovative ways to adapt and thrive.

[00:00:44] So what does 2025 have in store for Canadians, real estate professionals and investors alike?

[00:00:53] As we explore the next strategies and opportunities in real estate, we'll examine how higher financing costs, construction challenges and changing market dynamics are reshaping Canada's real estate sector.

[00:01:08] We will analyze major markets across the country like Calgary, now the darling of real estate investment in Canada, with its strong economy and impressive, I think world leading population growth or Saskatoon with its great affordability.

[00:01:23] Welcome back to the Canadian Real Estate Investor, where we break down these trends, what they mean for investors, developers and home buyers in Canada's evolving real estate market.

[00:01:34] We are covering an awesome year-end report written and researched by our good friends at Urban Land Institute, ULI and professional services firm PWC.

[00:01:45] Now these two organizations had 175 people across North America collaborate on the research, writing and producing of this report.

[00:01:56] It's so impressive.

[00:01:58] They literally have full chapters in each report titled things like deals, markets to watch and best bets for 2025.

[00:02:06] They go over a whole bunch of different asset classes as well.

[00:02:10] Yeah, and it really is a phenomenal report.

[00:02:13] They dive into a lot of things.

[00:02:15] They talk about affordability.

[00:02:16] They talk about economics, building cycles, prop tech, AI, and they do deep dives into major markets across Canada and the US.

[00:02:24] We're only going to cover a small section of what's offered in the report, so I'd highly encourage anybody who's interested to download a copy of this report.

[00:02:31] It's called the Emerging Trends Report.

[00:02:34] Yeah, exactly.

[00:02:35] And we've taken the highlights because the report is like 140 pages.

[00:02:39] We took some really interesting pieces like the piece on Toronto's condo market, analysis on most of the major Canadian markets, and a small blurb from the part on cycles.

[00:02:52] And of course, we had to touch on their best investment strategies for 2025.

[00:02:58] So with all that being said, let's dive in and start with what is likely the biggest disaster in Canadian real estate right now, the Toronto condo market.

[00:03:07] Now, before we dive into what the report says, I want to provide some context on just how bad things are.

[00:03:13] This is a paragraph from an article titled, Oversupplied and Undersold Toronto's Condo Market Challenges Realtors.

[00:03:21] The condo market is facing its toughest challenge in decades, says Sean Hildebrandt, president of the real estate consulting firm Urbanation.

[00:03:29] Investors are inactive and end user buyers currently have plenty of lower priced options to choose from in the resale market.

[00:03:37] Condo supply in Toronto is currently at least three to five times the norm, with a combined total of nearly 40,000 condo units in limbo across all categories.

[00:03:47] He's been quoted stating that this is an unprecedented backlog, a level the market has never seen, which could take years to absorb.

[00:03:55] Yikes.

[00:03:56] So with that stage set, let's go over some of the highlights from this piece in the report titled,

[00:04:02] In Focus, The Stress and Distress in Canada's Major Condo Markets.

[00:04:08] Now, the condominium markets in two major cities, I bet you can take a guess what they are.

[00:04:13] Most notably, of course, Toronto to a lesser degree, Vancouver has largely frozen over.

[00:04:19] Now, back in the day, investors were making bank buying presale condos, watching their investments grow like crazy.

[00:04:26] Well, construction of new units was still happening.

[00:04:30] But now the market has pretty much hit a wall with prices either staying flat or in some cases falling off a cliff.

[00:04:39] People are finding better ways to make money elsewhere than in the pre-con condo market.

[00:04:45] I mean, you're seeing a lot.

[00:04:46] We talked about this a couple of times.

[00:04:47] We're seeing a lot of people move over to CMHC deals, different markets, a lot of capital going to the US even.

[00:04:54] It doesn't help that condo rents in places like Toronto aren't what they used to be.

[00:04:58] They've cooled off in some spots and have actually dropped for the first time in years.

[00:05:03] And even though we have seen cuts, these still higher interest rates are putting a real damper on buyers' appetites.

[00:05:13] People are just sitting on the sidelines still.

[00:05:17] And when the price difference between existing condos and pre-construction units has grown,

[00:05:23] so it's really putting a dent in those presale numbers.

[00:05:26] It's getting harder to sell those things.

[00:05:28] At the same time, on the supply side, developers face high construction and borrowing costs while lenders tighten capital access for condo projects

[00:05:37] after witnessing a wave of bankruptcies and insolvencies across the country.

[00:05:41] We're hearing about new developers going bankrupt at least once a month.

[00:05:45] Rising assignment sales indicate builders' difficulty closing deals on completed units.

[00:05:51] Yeah, the scary thing is the downturn has left a lot of these developers with high unsold inventory.

[00:05:56] And of course, mounting costs as they have to pay their capital stack to hold these things.

[00:06:01] And that in turn halts a lot of new project launches.

[00:06:05] Dan, we've talked about this before where we've seen thousands of projects across the country halted or shelled indefinitely.

[00:06:12] Now, Urban Nation reports record high unsold condo inventory of over 25,000, almost 26,000 units in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton area by mid-2024.

[00:06:23] So mid this year, while condos under construction dropped to 87,000 units, down nearly 19,000 units from the previous year.

[00:06:32] The market has basically split into two.

[00:06:36] You've got large developers with strong finances and land holdings who are able to get banks to lend to them, can access credit and pause projects as needed.

[00:06:45] And so maybe they'll benefit more in this gap in supply in the future.

[00:06:50] But they've already delayed something like 76 projects, almost 25,000 units in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton area since 2002.

[00:06:59] Meanwhile, smaller developers who don't have the luxury of being able to tap on that credit or don't have what you would call staying power and investing are struggling to manage mounting financial challenges with limited reserves.

[00:07:12] Yeah, it really is that kind of tale of two cities, tale of two developers, the market splitting into it.

[00:07:17] You've got the big legacy guys that have been able to buy land, buy and hold stuff and kind of sit and wait until market conditions are a bit more favorable.

[00:07:28] And then you've got a lot of the smaller or newer developers that are really feeling the brunt of this.

[00:07:33] Now, fewer receiverships and distressed sales occurred in early 2024 than was originally predicted, but likely because lenders want to avoid major losses and aren't forcing these condo developers to sell assets at the now lower prices, which they would be trading at.

[00:07:51] Yeah, I mean, if it started happening at scale, I think it would be a disaster, right?

[00:07:56] Because you'd start having lenders setting prices.

[00:07:58] And so it really begs the question.

[00:08:00] I've thought this for a long time.

[00:08:02] I've been talking about bailouts and how the banks are basically putting a private sector bailout in place already.

[00:08:08] Is the condo market in Toronto too big to fail?

[00:08:11] It seems that it might be the case.

[00:08:12] Yeah, I mean, lenders are offering forbearance agreements and credit bids instead of forcing those sales, allowing developers to have a bit of time and use that to renegotiate those terms with the lenders.

[00:08:25] While most receiverships are expected in 2025, high land prices, interest rates, higher construction costs are still making any kind of new developments challenging.

[00:08:35] This is a quote from a Vancouver interviewee that said, we looked at over 50 land purchase deals over the last 12 months and none of them made financial sense.

[00:08:48] Yeah, I mean, 50 deals and not one making financial sense is pretty crazy.

[00:08:54] Also, maybe could you do a dictionary on the word forbearance if you get a chance?

[00:08:59] I would be my pleasure.

[00:09:01] So a mortgage forbearance agreement is an agreement made between a mortgage lender and a delinquent borrower.

[00:09:09] Now, in this agreement, the lender agrees to not exercise its legal right to foreclose on that mortgage.

[00:09:17] And the borrower agrees to a mortgage plan that will, over a certain time period, bring the borrower's current on those late or missed payments.

[00:09:29] Despite the challenging conditions, some of the people interviewed for this report noted that pent up demand means the condo market will likely come back, creating opportunities for those with sufficient patience and capital to wait out the downturn.

[00:09:42] I'm not sure whether or not I agree with that.

[00:09:44] I think that like them talking about all the absorption that needs to take place in the meantime, your pent up demand should be satisfied by all of those inventory units sitting there, right?

[00:09:55] Some predicted that developers would focus on end users rather than leverage investors.

[00:10:01] And the ones who did that or continue to do that will be best positioned to benefit from an eventual market recovery.

[00:10:08] And I like the word eventual there.

[00:10:09] Eventual indeed.

[00:10:10] Yeah.

[00:10:11] So there you have it.

[00:10:12] The condo market drama is far from over by the sounds of it.

[00:10:17] But that is only one story, the tale of two cities and one asset class within those cities.

[00:10:22] And although Toronto may be the center of the universe for some, it certainly isn't the case for the rest of Canada.

[00:10:30] So, Dan, let's go across the country and look what's happening in some of the other major markets.

[00:10:38] Dan, start us off with the bell of the ball right now.

[00:10:43] Ladies and gentlemen, I give to you Calgary.

[00:10:45] Yeah.

[00:10:47] So it would appear that Ontario has discovered Western Canada and international markets have discovered Western Canada.

[00:10:56] I think the quote that they say is Canada has discovered Western Canada and international markets have discovered Western Canada said one interviewee for the report.

[00:11:04] Yeah, I love that.

[00:11:05] So seemingly all eyes are on Stampede City right now.

[00:11:09] Calgary's economy continues to diversify, particularly through growing technology sector.

[00:11:13] The city is experiencing dramatic population growth, drawing people from both across Canada and internationally, being one of the fastest growing places on earth right now.

[00:11:24] During the year ending July 1st, 2023, Calgary welcomed almost 27,000 people from other provinces and over 60,000 international arrivals.

[00:11:35] On the economic front, the Conference Board of Canada, CBOC, projects real GDP growth will increase from 1.1% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025.

[00:11:49] This economic strength helped Calgary claim the top spot for overall real estate prospects in 2025 in this year's survey.

[00:11:57] Yeah, I mean, that's a pretty big jump from 1.1% to 2.5%.

[00:12:01] You love to see it.

[00:12:02] And I mean, Calgary's real estate markets also showing strong potential with the biggest opportunities in single family and multifamily properties,

[00:12:11] strictly due to that crazy population growth that they're seeing.

[00:12:15] Right.

[00:12:15] CMHC projects record housing starts through 2025.

[00:12:20] And I know that Alberta is leading the way and housing starts already in 2024.

[00:12:25] And that's despite having Canada's fastest rising construction costs that was recorded in Q2 of this year,

[00:12:32] developers can still stay profitable by doing things like increasing rents and sale prices.

[00:12:37] So Calgary to the moon.

[00:12:39] Housing affordability has obviously been a big draw for people from other parts of Canada.

[00:12:45] But as demand increases, some are worrying that this housing affordability promise may change.

[00:12:52] Now, let's not forget Alberta doesn't have rent control and rental vacancies are low.

[00:12:59] So as a result, average rents are projected to rise by 9.7% in 2024 and by 3.4% in 2025, according to CMHC.

[00:13:08] Still, the forecasted average rent of 1859 in 2024 for a two-bedroom apartment remains below cities like Vancouver, which is $2,400, and Toronto, which is $2,200.

[00:13:22] Crazy.

[00:13:22] Now, a quick piece on the office market in Calgary, which is really interesting.

[00:13:28] Now, many workers have returned due to employers telling their employees to come back.

[00:13:36] But still, downtown vacancy remains high at over 30% in Q2 of this year.

[00:13:43] Now, that is a legacy issue that did exist before the pandemic.

[00:13:47] And Dan, remember, we've been there a couple times in the last few years, and this came up in conversation between us and with some of the people we met, that even when we were walking around downtown, you know, in the central business district with all the skyscrapers, there's still tons of for lease signs and all of those kind of storefronts or ground-level retail that would be advertising larger office space.

[00:14:12] Yeah, I think what we saw when we were in Calgary is like a lot of the A-, B, and C stuff seems to be for lease.

[00:14:20] And they're kind of battling this high office vacancy.

[00:14:23] I think it was or maybe still is the highest office vacancy in the country.

[00:14:26] But it seems like they're battling that a little bit with office-to-res conversions, which has been kind of meaningfully resurrecting the downtown.

[00:14:35] Calgary's municipal government is funding office residential conversions with $52.5 million, offering developers up to $75 per square foot.

[00:14:44] So I think they've approved 11 projects with the first 112-unit conversion completed in April of 2024.

[00:14:51] I think we'll have to go check one of those out when we're out there next time.

[00:14:54] Yeah, very cool.

[00:14:55] While the industrial market remains stable with 3.3% vacancy, it's performing below last year's levels.

[00:15:01] Experts predict continued strong demand given Calgary's role as Western Canada's distribution center.

[00:15:07] Okay, so it looks like all markets in Calgary other than office are doing quite well.

[00:15:14] And the good thing about the office market, which is blatantly struggling, is that they've got a very real solution for it.

[00:15:19] And I mean, with 11 projects approved, that's very exciting.

[00:15:23] But that's enough of Calgary.

[00:15:26] Dan, now let's hop on a quick flight west to chat about my hometown, Hollywood North, the wet coast, Van City, baby.

[00:15:36] Vancouver's real GDP is expected to grow by 1% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025, according to forecast.

[00:15:43] So not bad for economic prospects.

[00:15:46] And Vancouver's population grows through international migration, despite losing residence on other areas within BC and Canada.

[00:15:54] Yeah, it's funny.

[00:15:55] You've got people in Vancouver leaving Vancouver, but people from across the country and around the world heading to Vancouver.

[00:16:02] Now, that whole thing has obviously affected rents.

[00:16:05] The average rent for a two-bedroom apartment is set to be $2,580 per month in 2025, which, no surprise, there is the highest in Canada.

[00:16:14] And CMHC expects housing starts to decline slightly throughout this year, which they have, and hopefully resume growth and get back on track in 2025.

[00:16:28] Yeah, I think BC has been doing some cool stuff in an attempt to make housing affordable.

[00:16:32] They're making developers build denser buildings near transit stations, like major transit station areas, MTSAs.

[00:16:39] While some of the other plans are moving pretty slowly, their density rules actually seem to be working and getting more people to build homes close to transit hubs.

[00:16:48] Yeah, I mean, that's a no-brainer there.

[00:16:50] And, you know, Vancouver's aging apartment stock, a lot of buildings from the 1960s and 70s are being targeted for redevelopment.

[00:16:58] I know there's a couple big things happening right now.

[00:17:02] The Broadway plan permits replacing these older buildings with towers up to 40 stories.

[00:17:06] So you're looking at some of these legacy kind of missing middle stuff that likely came out of the MERB program in the 70s.

[00:17:12] They're now going to be redeveloped, and that's going to increase density along Broadway, which is a major corridor.

[00:17:18] And there's also major plans, major redevelopment plans in other pockets across the Lower Mayland, like one of the places I grew up, and Dan, where Chip Wilson's from, who's been on the show here, in Kitsilano as well, which is very kind of a mid-rise neighborhood.

[00:17:35] But there's a ton of towers planned there.

[00:17:38] Yeah, Vancouver's downtown office vacancy rate is 10.8% in Q2 of 2024, which is the lowest in Canada.

[00:17:47] I mean, it's hard for people, you know, I'd say primarily residential investors in the audience to hear vacancy rates that high when people are used to hearing industrial and residential vacancy rates in like the 2% range, right?

[00:18:01] So it's still pretty impressive from my perspective, and that's according to CBRE.

[00:18:07] So that's a wrap on Vancouver.

[00:18:09] Where are we off to next?

[00:18:10] Okay, well, we are going to go back to Alberta, quick flight back east.

[00:18:16] But this time we're going to Y-E-G, the oil capital.

[00:18:20] Let's talk about Edmonton.

[00:18:22] Yeah, so we keep hearing so much about how many people are doing deals there, right?

[00:18:27] Like we got Al from Round Square, who is going to actually be hosting an event with us in Ontario in the new year.

[00:18:37] And he's built a ton of great missing middle projects out in that market.

[00:18:41] Yeah, for sure.

[00:18:42] I mean, he's not the only one.

[00:18:43] People across the country and even in the province of Alberta seem to be flocking to Edmonton, helping the city move up in the survey rankings number four for the overall real estate prospects for 2025.

[00:18:57] Now, in the year that ended, so last year, 2023, more than 38,000 people moved to the city from abroad and about 16,000 came from other provinces.

[00:19:10] Edmonton's real GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.2% by the closeout of this year, 2024, and then rebound to 2.7% in 2025.

[00:19:22] So we're going to see similar growth as we saw in Calgary in Edmonton.

[00:19:26] So good news for Alberta overall.

[00:19:29] Yeah, people really seem to love Edmonton because of its affordability.

[00:19:34] The average house price is just one third of those in Vancouver and Toronto and two bedroom apartments forecast to rent for 1481 in 2024, which is far below other major Canadian cities.

[00:19:50] But it still makes the market compelling for both investors and developers looking to capitalize, especially on MLI Select affordable rental program as well as end users alike.

[00:20:01] Yeah, I mean, investors, developers, end users.

[00:20:04] You know, when you're talking affordability, that word rings true with just about everybody.

[00:20:11] Now, quick piece on the office market in Edmonton.

[00:20:15] Vacancy isn't great.

[00:20:17] Sits at over 20%.

[00:20:18] That's data from Q2 of this year.

[00:20:21] Limited interest in anything lower than class A.

[00:20:26] And Dan, this will come up throughout this report as well as another report, which we have in another episode.

[00:20:32] The pull towards class A office space is huge.

[00:20:37] Now, the return to office has been slower than Calgary due to Edmonton's large public sector workforce and the prevailing work from home culture.

[00:20:47] Without municipal incentives for office conversions like Calgary, right?

[00:20:52] We know that they've approved almost a dozen there.

[00:20:55] Fewer conversions from office to res are happening or predicted to happen in Edmonton.

[00:21:01] Now, Edmonton is hot and I love it.

[00:21:06] Well, I mean, it's not hot.

[00:21:07] It's actually super cold most of the year, but the market is hot.

[00:21:11] So anyways, that is all we have for Edmonton.

[00:21:14] Where to next, Captain?

[00:21:15] Next stop is Stoon Town, I think.

[00:21:21] The City of Bridges.

[00:21:22] But my favorite of them all may be the Paris of the Prairies as dubbed by Gord Downey.

[00:21:27] Yes, yes.

[00:21:29] Okay.

[00:21:29] So in the first quarter of 2024, RBC's aggregate affordability measure for Saskatoon was 33.4%.

[00:21:37] That's close to a 15-year high.

[00:21:39] Now, despite this, the city still has one of the most affordable markets in the country.

[00:21:44] Rental vacancies are expected to be 1.7% throughout this year, 1.8% in 2025.

[00:21:53] And CMHC expects housing starts to grow there moderately.

[00:21:57] The growth will come from multi-unit residential stuff.

[00:22:02] So similar to Edmonton and Calgary, we're probably going to see a lot of MLI action happening there.

[00:22:07] Single family starts aren't likely to increase just due to some of a bit of leftover housing stock and some unsold inventory.

[00:22:16] And then, of course, all the other stuff that makes it difficult right now to build single families like the rising costs in construction and labor availability.

[00:22:25] Yeah.

[00:22:26] It felt like when we were out there, like all of the projects had already been spoken for from a capital perspective.

[00:22:31] Like we were like, oh, if Ontario investors wanted to buy into a project like this, like what would they want to do?

[00:22:38] Or what would they do?

[00:22:39] Who would they talk to?

[00:22:39] And they're like, oh, yeah, we don't have any projects that are looking for capital.

[00:22:43] So I mean, that's a good problem to have.

[00:22:45] But yeah, it's very good.

[00:22:46] Yeah.

[00:22:47] Saskatoon's industrial market shows strong performance with a low 1.5% vacancy rate in Q2 2024.

[00:22:54] With real GDP projected to grow 2.2% in 2025 and 300,000 square feet of new industrial inventory plan, the sector's outlook appears to be pretty positive.

[00:23:05] Now let's get back on the real estate jet and head southeast to the home of the jets, the peg, winter peg.

[00:23:11] Ah, yes, Winnipeg.

[00:23:13] Like Dan, we were just there a few weeks ago for our meetup and man, did we meet some great people, looked at some great investment properties and yeah, met a ton of great investors at the meetup there.

[00:23:23] If you are in the Winnipeg area and are looking to get more involved in the community and talk to some really impressive, a lot of young people doing deals out there in an extremely affordable market full of opportunity, get out to our Winnipeg meetup.

[00:23:40] Yeah, you can definitely feel a buzz going on there.

[00:23:43] There's definitely a lot of young people involved in the investment space.

[00:23:46] International immigration drove Winnipeg's population up 4.1% in 2024.

[00:23:51] Though RBC's housing affordability measure reached a 30-year high at 32.3%, it remains half the national average.

[00:24:00] So kind of a similar story to Saskatoon, right?

[00:24:03] We're seeing the affordability decrease, but at the same time, I guess it started so much lower than the markets that everyone compares things to, Toronto, Vancouver, and even now Calgary,

[00:24:16] that even though affordability has decreased, they're still so affordable compared to some of the other markets.

[00:24:25] Now, talking about Winnipeg, the real GDP growth has actually been healthy in recent years, expected to fall by the end of this year to about 1.1%,

[00:24:35] but a rebound to 2.6% is expected in 2025.

[00:24:40] That seems to be the similar story across the Prairie provinces that will be somewhere in the mid-2.5s or the mid-2s, 2.3 to 2.8.

[00:24:51] Forecasted improvement in the economies in 2025 is expected to drive things like construction.

[00:24:57] And there's a lot of creative solutions happening in Winnipeg, such as I believe you're going to tell me about one of them, Dan.

[00:25:04] Yeah, I think one of the big things is Winnipeg's downtown is set to be transformed in the next few years with plans to convert two of the largest retail properties into mixed-use developments.

[00:25:14] Other developments include plans to build a multi-unit residential tower near the art gallery,

[00:25:19] and construction has begun on combined multi-unit residential and creative hub in the city's exchange district.

[00:25:25] And so this is one of those things where Canada has a very cool advantage over other cities where you're hearing about this hollowing out phenomena in the US.

[00:25:36] The doom loop.

[00:25:36] Yeah, the doom loop that Nick's been going on and on about.

[00:25:39] You know, we have such a high demand for residential in Canada that they can just slap residential developments in areas.

[00:25:46] And especially when you're talking high-rise residential, if you're introducing, you know, thousands of new residents to an area, it can completely change the area.

[00:25:55] I guess, I mean, this is more often delivered with like a negative lens in US markets through like the lens of gentrification as an example.

[00:26:05] But, you know, in areas where it really needs like resurrection, reduction in crime, you know, more people there, neighborhood watch, you might call it, it can really help as well.

[00:26:13] Yeah, I hate that gentrification has become a bad word, especially when it's applied to something like this.

[00:26:19] Because, Dan, you know, I've been to Winnipeg multiple times in the last few years.

[00:26:22] I know you have too.

[00:26:23] And, you know, the downtown is beautiful, right?

[00:26:26] They've got some really amazing buildings, some like art deco style, great architecture there.

[00:26:32] But when we talk to people, everyone's like, yeah, I don't come downtown after this time or in the winter.

[00:26:38] I don't come down when it's dark or, you know, I only come down for a Jets game and then I'm out of here.

[00:26:43] I wouldn't live down here.

[00:26:45] You got to avoid these neighborhoods.

[00:26:46] And it's like, but this is a large, beautiful city.

[00:26:50] Like, why are we seeing this like mass exodus from it?

[00:26:54] It's not like people are just leaving Winnipeg and going to other parts of Canada.

[00:26:58] They're just leaving Winnipeg and going to the new suburbs that are being built around it.

[00:27:03] So, you know, when there's major developments like this that are going to have huge pull factors to hopefully see young people and companies kind of come back and start to live and work and play in that downtown core that's already there and built and waiting for it.

[00:27:21] You know, I'm a big fan of that.

[00:27:23] Yeah, 100%.

[00:27:24] I think I look, it's nice to see this kind of this new, I don't like these, these whole new like rebirths of a lot of these urban areas.

[00:27:36] Totally, totally.

[00:27:37] I mean, I love to see it.

[00:27:38] So a lot of cool stuff going on in Winnipeg, but we must keep the show going.

[00:27:45] So next stop, a quick flight over to TDOT, the six, the big smoke.

[00:27:51] Yes, we are headed back to the center of the universe.

[00:27:55] Dan, tell me about Toronto's economy.

[00:27:57] Toronto's economy is forecast to grow by 2.7% in 2025 after expected GDP growth of only half a percent in 2024.

[00:28:05] If you consider how many people were added to Toronto's population in 2024, that would be really depressing on a per capita basis.

[00:28:14] I will be surprised if we see Toronto's economy grow that much in 2025.

[00:28:18] It just seems really optimistic.

[00:28:21] Seems a little optimistic, yeah.

[00:28:21] Well, yeah, it does.

[00:28:24] Given like everything that they also mentioned about the condo thing, like once that trickles into construction and, you know, a decline in construction.

[00:28:35] And then I just, it's hard to imagine.

[00:28:37] I think like growth is worth thinking about, but 2.7 seems pretty ambitious.

[00:28:43] But anyway, like we previously discussed, they face that challenge of the condo market.

[00:28:47] Low demand for new condos stems from high interest rates, deterring both investors and buyers.

[00:28:53] And we've talked about it a number of times on the show, but this system is basically broken at this point.

[00:28:58] New condo prices exceed resale values, pushing buyers into the secondary market.

[00:29:03] So people basically are buying resale condos or detached resale homes.

[00:29:10] Meanwhile, developers struggle with elevated borrowing and construction costs with Toronto seeing the steepest construction cost increase in major Canadian cities in the past five years.

[00:29:21] I think it's the second biggest increase in construction costs in the world, if I'm not incorrect there, I believe.

[00:29:27] Why would that not surprise me in the least?

[00:29:29] Now, as far as housing starts go, they're not growing now, but CMHC does forecast modest growth for the remainder of this year through to 2025.

[00:29:40] And that's ideally going to be driven by lower mortgage rates.

[00:29:45] However, overall starts are expected to decline as the dominant multi-unit residential segment faces a bit of a downturn as well.

[00:29:54] Yeah.

[00:29:55] Yeah.

[00:29:55] And Toronto's office market seems to be showing signs of stabilization with downtown vacancy at 17.6%.

[00:30:02] It's like almost, it gives you the shivers when you say those ones in Q2 of 2024.

[00:30:08] Up marginally from Q1.

[00:30:10] The market split continues between new and old buildings.

[00:30:13] So again, like this really becomes a thing between your class.

[00:30:16] AAA is like 5.9% vacancy in June, 2024.

[00:30:20] For market absorption turned positive with the delivery of a nearly full 47-story tower.

[00:30:27] Yeah.

[00:30:27] So, I mean, you still have like, you build something new, sexy, and people are going to come to it.

[00:30:31] It's just the rest of the stock that's suffering.

[00:30:34] It's that kind of trickle-down effect.

[00:30:36] Yeah, for sure.

[00:30:37] So, look, dramatic stuff for downtown Canada, as some say.

[00:30:43] Okay.

[00:30:44] Let's head over to Billy Bishop, Dan.

[00:30:47] We'll hop on the Island Airport to get a quick flight over to the capital, the city where the senators are politicians, but also hockey players.

[00:30:58] You like that one?

[00:30:59] That was good, yeah.

[00:31:02] The capital city.

[00:31:03] Dan, tell me about Ottawa.

[00:31:05] What's happening with the population there?

[00:31:06] Yeah.

[00:31:07] Well, it appears that important people are leaving Ottawa.

[00:31:11] That's a whole different episode.

[00:31:15] Ottawa's population is growing as a result of both international and interprovincial migration.

[00:31:20] I think there's a lot of government hiring going on.

[00:31:23] That's definitely no surprise to anybody.

[00:31:25] And so, I mean, the government jobs are located there regardless of how many days a week they end up in the office.

[00:31:30] They technically are located there.

[00:31:32] So, after weak real GDP growth in 2024, the CBOC expects it will be steady at about 2.3% for the next several years, which is plausible.

[00:31:42] I mean, unless regime change, government election, et cetera, leads to –

[00:31:48] Unless we see kind of like your U.S.-style doge and Javier Malay-style chainsaw capitalism, like Argentina.

[00:31:59] I like that chainsaw capitalism.

[00:32:00] Yeah.

[00:32:01] Which I don't see – like, I mean, Pierre's just not running on that.

[00:32:03] I don't think he needs to add that to his platform to win the election.

[00:32:06] I don't think he really needs to add anything.

[00:32:08] Would be good clickbait, though.

[00:32:09] A little bit of him with a chainsaw and, you know.

[00:32:12] But yeah, it doesn't seem like –

[00:32:13] Cutting some of the chart in half.

[00:32:15] Yeah.

[00:32:15] I guess we'll see whether or not Canada ends up needing austerity.

[00:32:18] But I think that their GDP growth figures are probably not unreasonable.

[00:32:24] That's basically like growing at inflation.

[00:32:26] Like that's actually no real GDP growth.

[00:32:29] Yeah.

[00:32:30] Which when you put it that way, that's pretty much – I mean, we've said between – you know, it's basically been between 2.2% and 2.8% across the country so far.

[00:32:38] So just keeping up with inflation, that's if inflation stays in that 2 to 3 kind of neutral range, right?

[00:32:44] So the growing population and they say healthy economy are pushing vacancy rates down and rents are higher.

[00:32:52] Vacancies are expected to be about 2.5% in 2025 with rents predicted to rise 4.5%.

[00:32:58] According to CMHC, on the ownership side, homebuyers are being forced to seek affordability at the city's outer edges and in neighboring communities.

[00:33:07] And that's the one great thing I will say about Ottawa.

[00:33:10] I'm not a massive fan of the Ottawa market, the downtown Ottawa market, even though Dan, you and I both know several members in our Realist program that are doing a number of great deals up there.

[00:33:20] The one thing about Ottawa is if you drive an hour outside of the city, man, do you come across some really great investable markets.

[00:33:28] Yeah, for sure.

[00:33:28] I think, I mean, like we've got, I guess Cornwall is a little bit further than that, but there are like even a lot of those and they're all like old historic.

[00:33:36] A lot of them have like those charming downtowns.

[00:33:38] They feel like really compelling areas for like seniors to go and retire.

[00:33:42] You know what I mean?

[00:33:42] Which is probably what I think that's kind of the next big trend that's going to be happening is that great downsizing that'll take place.

[00:33:51] But mainly west of downtown, many multi-unit residential developments are underway, but interest rates will need to decline further for new projects to be launched.

[00:33:59] Similarly, well-located, conservatively leveraged condo developments already under construction seem to be proceeding, but interest in launching new projects does not appear to be proceeding.

[00:34:10] Okay.

[00:34:11] So same story in most markets, right?

[00:34:15] Any developer with a reasonable capital stack can handle it.

[00:34:19] Any over levered developers are likely treading water or underwater at this point.

[00:34:25] Now, let's touch on the downtown here, right?

[00:34:30] The federal government, which is, of course, the office market in Ottawa's largest tenant, the federal government, right?

[00:34:37] And we've talked about this before.

[00:34:39] Widespread office vacancies due to remote work is the culprit.

[00:34:44] Again, the government's 2024 plan to have the office space over 10 years combined with a 12% vacancy rate creates uncertainty for developers.

[00:34:57] Now, Dan, we talked about the halving of the federal government's office space in Canada or sorry, in Ottawa on a couple other episodes.

[00:35:05] And I think we'll hopefully see a lot of those buildings being converted.

[00:35:10] One of the buildings has already been sold to a developer for residential development purposes.

[00:35:15] But, you know, they might have to bring in some of the team from Calgary to make sure they can start to really get that stuff done in a meaningful way.

[00:35:26] This is the thing with converting office to residential.

[00:35:29] Like every time you talk about it, there's always somebody just willing to tell you that it's easier said than done.

[00:35:35] And I accept that.

[00:35:36] And so it's interesting to watch these actually try and take place.

[00:35:41] So things seem to be sort of moderate in the capital city.

[00:35:45] Who would have thought that the work from home in the public sector would evolve into this much of an issue?

[00:35:49] But there's all the protests, I guess, that was happening when they were trying to just regulate.

[00:35:54] Was it just three days back in the office?

[00:35:56] I think it was.

[00:35:57] And now you compare that to what's happening in the U.S. where basically I think Elon Musk was saying like you can work from home, but you can't work from the government from home.

[00:36:05] Right?

[00:36:06] Yeah, I can see that.

[00:36:08] You know, like it kind of makes sense when you really think about it.

[00:36:10] Like this is like there's security issues, et cetera.

[00:36:13] Like all of those just went out the window for that period of time.

[00:36:16] So I guess we don't really have a ton of time to chat on that anymore.

[00:36:19] Let's just keep moving.

[00:36:20] So we'll get back on our imaginary jet here.

[00:36:22] I would call this a private imaginary jet.

[00:36:24] So I wish.

[00:36:28] Next stop is the city of St.

[00:36:32] MTL, La Metropole.

[00:36:34] That's right.

[00:36:35] Time to enjoy a short private flight over to.

[00:36:39] Well, actually, you know, Dan, maybe we'll just leave the jet and drive because Montreal is very close to Ottawa.

[00:36:45] Yeah, we take the via rail.

[00:36:47] Maybe I don't know.

[00:36:47] I think we're going there actually in January and we're going to stop in Ottawa on the way.

[00:36:52] And I was going through it with Jonathan trying to figure out like how we'd get there.

[00:36:56] And I was like, I feel like the via rail actually might make the most sense.

[00:36:59] And CMHC, which has come up a number of times in this report and countless times in the show, will actually be stopping into their office.

[00:37:06] So that'll be an exciting trip.

[00:37:08] It'll be an exciting interview for sure.

[00:37:09] So, yeah.

[00:37:10] After several years of strong growth, the Montreal economy slowly or slowed considerably in 2023.

[00:37:17] The CBOC expects the real GDP to grow only 0.7% in 2024 before recovering to 2.4% in 2025.

[00:37:25] I got to say this.

[00:37:26] All of these things that are like coming off of a slow 2024, what makes them think that 2025 is going to be stronger in all of these markets?

[00:37:33] I mean, we haven't even really hit the full bore of a recession yet.

[00:37:37] Honestly, like I just, with all due respect, like I think these people get paid to forecast properly, no?

[00:37:42] Or is this like, what do they call it?

[00:37:43] Econom meteorologists.

[00:37:47] Look, greed is a powerful drug.

[00:37:49] That's why we, it's a large portion of, a large reason of why we are where we are today.

[00:37:54] But you know what else is a powerful drug, Dan?

[00:37:57] Optimism.

[00:37:57] And I think there's a prevalency, you know, having read this report and the CBRE report for 2025 Outlook, which we have another episode on.

[00:38:08] You know, there is an air of optimism across all of these reports.

[00:38:12] And, you know, the crazy thing is it's not even that optimistic because, Dan, we're saying, you know, even at Montreal, 2.4%, right?

[00:38:18] Like every single thing is just in line with inflation.

[00:38:21] Like that growth is in line with inflation.

[00:38:23] It's not like we're actually growing.

[00:38:25] No.

[00:38:25] That's Canada, though.

[00:38:26] So it's funny, like, you know, most growth in any economy comes from inflation.

[00:38:31] That's like the whole Bitcoin philosophy, right?

[00:38:34] It's just that the whole thing is currency debasement.

[00:38:35] Real estate, from my perspective, is a decent inflation hedge as well because I don't know if I explained this a couple of times.

[00:38:40] But, you know, you get to take all of these goods and they get baked into a cake, right?

[00:38:45] So like, you know, you got your plumbing, you got your plumber's labor, your wood, your drywall, all of those things.

[00:38:50] And you get to buy them at whatever the fixed cost today.

[00:38:52] And then for the next 20 years, you don't ever have to buy them again, right?

[00:38:55] Or 50 years to the whole economic life of a building, which we covered on another recent episode.

[00:38:58] But I will say this.

[00:39:00] The only two people who get paid to be wrong, economists and meteorologists.

[00:39:04] That's it.

[00:39:06] I got to get into that business.

[00:39:08] So, okay.

[00:39:09] So back to Montreal, despite a growing population.

[00:39:12] And this is, again, unfortunately, a familiar story.

[00:39:16] Housing starts in 2023 fell to their lowest level since 2001.

[00:39:23] Now, they are expected to stabilize a little bit throughout this year, 2024, and apparently are going to show meaningful growth in 2025.

[00:39:29] But similar story to other markets, few condos are under construction as Montreal as developers face the same problems that you've heard time and time again.

[00:39:37] High interest rates, construction costs, and a lack of foreign investment into that market.

[00:39:44] Yeah.

[00:39:45] So thank you for having us, Montreal.

[00:39:46] Well, and now we're going to head to another beautiful historic city that in 1842, during a visit by Charles Dickens, he called Quebec City the Gibraltar of North America, which was not dissimilar to when Nick Hill called this the Canadian real estate investor and historians podcast, apparently.

[00:40:07] You know, if we can throw in a quote by Charles Dickens about Canada, I'm here for it.

[00:40:12] So over to Gibraltar, otherwise known as Quebec City, after a negative real GDP growth in 2023, Quebec City's economy is expected to recover slightly throughout this year and grow 1.9% in 2025.

[00:40:27] So actually lower.

[00:40:28] That's, I think, the lowest we've seen so far.

[00:40:30] Now, despite soft economic growth, the CBOC forecast that the unemployment rate will remain low at 3.2% in 2024 and drop even lower to 3.1% in 2025.

[00:40:42] So a lower unemployment rate than we're seeing nationally, which I guess is a good thing.

[00:40:48] Yeah.

[00:40:49] CMHC forecast housing starts to decline in 2024 before a slight 2025 recovery.

[00:40:54] Multifamily housing remains Quebec City's strongest asset class driven by rental shortages.

[00:41:00] Two bedroom apartment vacancies are projected at 0.7% in 2024 and 0.6% in 2025, which is just like wild.

[00:41:08] Wild.

[00:41:09] Yeah.

[00:41:09] Compared to the list of the office vacancies.

[00:41:11] Is that the lowest?

[00:41:11] That has to be like, I think them and Hamilton, I think is the only one that's like that low.

[00:41:16] Yeah.

[00:41:16] I mean, 0.6% compared to like 30% for office towers in Calgary.

[00:41:21] Man, that's crazy.

[00:41:22] However, it's not all sunshine in Quebec.

[00:41:26] Condo demand and development.

[00:41:28] Again, same story remain low.

[00:41:30] Developers are now pivoting to rental projects, of course, that get favorable CMHC financing.

[00:41:36] Office vacancies are still high.

[00:41:38] Industrial space demand is strong.

[00:41:40] They're kind of servicing the entire kind of eastern portion of Canada.

[00:41:45] And data centers present opportunities to Quebec's power sources through tight electricity supply limits.

[00:41:53] But that is it for this province.

[00:41:54] Time for one more quick flight east.

[00:41:57] Dan, our final start, our final stop in the big salty, the city of trees, California.

[00:42:04] The city of trees.

[00:42:07] I like the big salty.

[00:42:08] I like that one.

[00:42:09] That is a good one.

[00:42:10] You know, the electricity thing is something I've really been watching because you mentioned it there.

[00:42:14] Like data centers is a huge opportunity.

[00:42:16] And when they go asset class by asset class in this report, they really talk about like all of the different opportunities.

[00:42:21] And data centers is the number one.

[00:42:23] But the interesting thing is, from my perspective, is like we exported so much electricity to the U.S.

[00:42:29] And the U.S. electricity demand is supposed to go up like five or six X as a result of all of this AI compute data centers, et cetera.

[00:42:36] Who is like so well positioned to absolutely crush it in that space?

[00:42:40] Not just in giving them the electricity, but also in hosting the data centers because the climate is so cold here.

[00:42:48] And so it reduces your cooling demands.

[00:42:49] There's this place called Canada that it's cold.

[00:42:52] We have lots of electricity and we have lots of natural electricity from all of the running rivers.

[00:42:58] So just saying, if you want to do some data center deals, give us a shout.

[00:43:02] We'll hook you up with the right people up here.

[00:43:04] Halifax has been on fire for a while now, I would say.

[00:43:08] They were one of the biggest beneficiaries, other than Calgary, the biggest beneficiary of that Toronto exodus of people.

[00:43:14] The CBOC thinks we'll see just 1.4% growth in 2024 and 2% in 2025.

[00:43:20] But tons of people moving in means super low vacancies and rents rising.

[00:43:24] So even with the province trying to keep a lid on things with a 5% rent cap, two bedroom apartments are still expected to jump 9% in 2024 and another 5.6% in 2025.

[00:43:34] Yeah.

[00:43:35] So why is this?

[00:43:37] Because vacancy rates are staying low at around 1% next year, according to CMHC.

[00:43:41] The silver lining, developers are going all in.

[00:43:43] We know a couple of guys out there, the IQ guys, IQ financial guys, Absolute Beauties, and they've been financing a ton of CMHC, MLI, Select stuff out there.

[00:43:53] Record numbers of rental units being built and even more housing starts on deck through 2026.

[00:44:00] Yeah, bullish on the East Coast for sure.

[00:44:04] So rising rents are outpacing income growth in Halifax.

[00:44:08] So tough times for maybe some of the locals or lower income people.

[00:44:12] And that's pushing development outward along the Halifax-Truro corridor due to some land constraints.

[00:44:19] Now affordability, the city is promoting density through new zoning that allows multiple units per lot and taller transit-oriented buildings.

[00:44:27] So again, similar stuff like we saw in Vancouver where along these transit lines, things have changed drastically.

[00:44:33] Now RBC's reports Halifax affordability measure rose 46.9% in Q1 of 2024 from 42% last year.

[00:44:45] That, I guess, concludes our cross-Canada trip with apologies to St. John's and Moncton because apparently you guys get left out of reports.

[00:44:52] And actually two of my favorite markets in Canada, to be honest.

[00:44:55] So maybe them being left out of reports is beneficial to us because we get another year or two of being able to capitalize on the deals being affordable before they get exposed.

[00:45:06] But I guess this concludes our trip across Canada on our fake airplane or private jet or whatever we're pretending to be in.

[00:45:12] Yeah, I mean, who knows, man?

[00:45:13] Maybe one day we will have a plane or a jet to fly around and look at deals.

[00:45:17] That'd be nice.

[00:45:18] It could be called like the property plane.

[00:45:19] Yeah, or maybe we start with a train and we'll call it the Equity Express.

[00:45:27] Or the closing cruiser.

[00:45:29] The market mover.

[00:45:30] It could be a giant cruise ship.

[00:45:32] Or how about this?

[00:45:33] Air Force One more deal.

[00:45:37] Okay.

[00:45:38] No, one more deal.

[00:45:40] You should call it deal force one.

[00:45:41] Deal force one would probably be even better.

[00:45:43] Ooh, I like it.

[00:45:44] Okay.

[00:45:44] Yeah, so let's finish off strong here with two more short segments from the reports.

[00:45:48] What they identified as the best bets for investments and where we are in the cycle right now.

[00:45:53] So let's go to best bets.

[00:45:55] Purpose built rental housing is the top investment choice for 2025.

[00:45:59] Surprise, surprise.

[00:46:00] We have been saying this for a long time.

[00:46:02] That's because renting is more affordable than buying a home for most.

[00:46:05] The rental market has strong long-term growth potential.

[00:46:07] The government is supporting you in helping developers through tax breaks and CMHC financing.

[00:46:14] And these programs actually encourage building more affordable housing units and investors can either buy existing rental buildings or buy new ones.

[00:46:22] Both of those strategies are still good to go.

[00:46:27] Yeah, there also seems to be a lot of attractiveness for data centers and industrial real estate seems to be a strong investment choice for 2025.

[00:46:35] Obviously seen a lot of growth thanks to online shopping, shipping needs, and more manufacturing in Canada.

[00:46:41] It's wild, man.

[00:46:41] So I drive the 404 from just like, I guess, Queensville area to like Queensville side road exit area to Toronto a couple times a week.

[00:46:51] And the amount of industrial development that is going on in that corridor, like, you know, you go through Markham.

[00:46:58] There's got to be like a million square feet going up.

[00:47:00] There's the new Loblaws Center at Green Lane in the 404 that's like a million square feet that a friend of mine built actually.

[00:47:09] And it's just wild.

[00:47:11] Like when you see this, it's like people talk about – I go to California a lot, right?

[00:47:17] I know a lot of people like to go to Florida or whatever.

[00:47:18] I like California.

[00:47:19] It's a nice place.

[00:47:20] And you go to California and you drive from like LA to Palm Springs as an example.

[00:47:24] And just the industry, like the trucks everywhere, the buildings, like just all of that.

[00:47:29] It's like people don't realize – and I'm like not – like I have felt that Canada is not heading in a super good direction,

[00:47:36] that there's a lot of things that we need to change, et cetera.

[00:47:38] But you can't dispute that like that is what our economic future looks like except with bad weather basically,

[00:47:43] which could be a good thing maybe for data centers and stuff like that.

[00:47:46] But I mean that, you know, that metropolitan area of like even South Florida you could use as a comparison, right?

[00:47:53] All of these different groups of cities of 500,000.

[00:47:56] Like that's what Ontario, the greater golden horseshoe will end up looking like in 20 years.

[00:48:01] Yeah.

[00:48:02] Yeah, I completely agree.

[00:48:04] The last best bet that Emerging Trends, ULI, PwC have put out are what they call niche investments.

[00:48:14] And I love this thing because this is part of an investment thesis basically that you and I talk about and teach all the time, right?

[00:48:19] Yeah, when they say – what's the strategy?

[00:48:21] It's – reishes are in the niches.

[00:48:25] Okay.

[00:48:25] So again, they talk about data centers for AI and cloud computing, right?

[00:48:28] You and I have talked about this a bunch – student housing, cold storage facilities, types of senior housing, multi-generational homes.

[00:48:36] So, you know, they're really basically saying find a niche and figure out how to own it.

[00:48:41] Now, the last piece here, Dan, I left this for you.

[00:48:44] Tell us a little bit about where they say we are in this cycle.

[00:48:50] Yeah.

[00:48:50] So this segment says a new cycle begins and it says real estate capital markets show early signs of recovery and market stabilization with improving liquidity and transaction activity.

[00:49:05] While cap rates aren't expected to return to historic lows, they are stabilizing alongside improving bid activity and debt spread conditions.

[00:49:14] Market analysts agree that the Fed's clear guidance in helping price discovery and narrowing bid-ask spreads.

[00:49:20] Lower debt costs are making projects more viable, leading to increased market activity and acquisitions, dispositions, and financing.

[00:49:28] However, new development remains constrained in many markets.

[00:49:31] It is an evolving story which they will continue to cover.

[00:49:35] Yeah.

[00:49:36] Perfect.

[00:49:37] And there you have it.

[00:49:38] That is the ULI PWC Emerging Trends Report for 2025.

[00:49:43] As I said, 175 very smart people came together across North America to put this thing together.

[00:49:50] And then two fools talked about it for about 50 minutes on a podcast.

[00:49:54] So if you want more, there is substantially more where this came from.

[00:49:59] Go download the report yourself and maybe take one of their best bets and look at their market analysis to help you formulate your own investment thesis.

[00:50:10] Anything else before we get out of here, Dan?

[00:50:12] Yeah.

[00:50:12] I think the last thing I wanted to leave people with is, you know, it's the new year coming up for those who celebrate.

[00:50:19] Happy new year.

[00:50:22] And we just had this thought.

[00:50:25] So we ran the five-day challenge last year and it was a great success.

[00:50:28] We had like a thousand people participating.

[00:50:31] A lot of people really enjoyed it.

[00:50:32] A lot of people learned a lot.

[00:50:33] A lot of people met other investors and they got closer to accomplishing their goals in real estate investment.

[00:50:36] And I've had this idea of like, you know, I'm at a new real estate brokerage now, Valerie.ca.

[00:50:42] It's Canada's first AI real estate brokerage.

[00:50:45] And so I'm obviously working a lot more with realtors, but also with real estate investors.

[00:50:50] And I wanted to build this goal-setting program, like similar to the five-day challenge, except it's a 12-month challenge, also known as a year.

[00:50:58] And what we would do is like get on a call at the beginning of the year.

[00:51:04] We're going to do that.

[00:51:04] Everybody goes through, sets our goals, right?

[00:51:06] And then we reverse engineer those into weekly milestones.

[00:51:09] So as an example, like I want to do, I don't know, I want to buy an investment property.

[00:51:13] Okay, well, I need to look at how many properties do I need to look at next year, right?

[00:51:16] Okay, well, I need to look at 10 deals a week, let's say hypothetically, right?

[00:51:19] Okay, so every week you're going to get a calendar invite that'll remind you to go in the thread in our school page and just post,

[00:51:26] hey, I looked at 11 deals this week, so I'm ahead for next week.

[00:51:29] That's all you got to do.

[00:51:30] So that's your accountability system because most people, I think, fail at their New Year's resolutions because they suck at accountability.

[00:51:38] And like that's how the whole coaching and guru system is built around is people paying for accountability.

[00:51:43] You're probably more likely to do it if you pay for it, but this is a free challenge.

[00:51:46] It's 100% free and there will be prizes.

[00:51:48] It's almost like I feel like the guru thing is like personal training, right?

[00:51:51] You pay a personal trainer, you're more likely to go to the gym, and then you're more likely to work out, and then you're going to see the results.

[00:51:57] We want to do the same thing, but we want to do it completely free.

[00:52:00] And I just want to help people try and accomplish their goals.

[00:52:03] This is something I've been doing.

[00:52:04] I literally check in on my goal milestones every single week, and then I do a bigger monthly planning session and kind of revisit my goals on a monthly basis.

[00:52:11] I want to help other people run this system with me for free.

[00:52:14] And if you win, if you do a great job, the first prize is that you actually accomplish your goals,

[00:52:18] but we're going to have other prizes as well for people who are just crushing it out there in the system.

[00:52:22] So that's what I got.

[00:52:24] If you're interested, go to realist.ca, and we'll get you set up.

[00:52:29] We'll see you there.

[00:52:30] Thanks so much for listening, everybody.

[00:52:32] We'll see you soon.

[00:52:33] The content of this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only.

[00:52:37] It is not intended as financial, legal, or investment advice.

[00:52:40] Always consult a qualified professional for advice tailored to your unique circumstances.

[00:52:44] The views expressed are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of affiliated organizations.

[00:52:52] Daniel Foch is a real estate broker licensed with Valerie Real Estate Inc.

[00:52:57] Website is Valerie.ca, V-A-L-E-R-Y.ca, and a member of the Canadian Real Estate Association,

[00:53:04] the Ontario Real Estate Association, and the Toronto Real Estate Board.

[00:53:08] Nick Hill is a mortgage agent and partner at OWL.

[00:53:12] Mortgage license number 10317, agent license M21004037.