Sales Dip, The Market Balances, & Sentiment Increases

[00:00:00] Welcome to The Canadian Real Estate Investor, where host Daniel Foch and Nick Hill navigate the market and provide the tools and insights to build your real estate portfolio. You've heard it before, New Year, New Me. Did you know, Dan, that that phrase, New Year, New Me, actually dates back over 4,000 years ago to the Babylonians who, at that point, would make year-end promises to their gods for a fresh start.

[00:00:29] You know, today I think it's changed a little bit. It's basically the modern mantra for reinvention, reminding us that every year brings new opportunities. Now, many people say this every year and you may have even said it yourself, but we aren't here to talk about people. We're here to talk about the market, specifically the real estate market. Yes, and many people are wondering, New Year, New Market?

[00:00:58] We've seen so much volatility in Canadian real estate over the last few years. Cannot overstate that. I mean, we've seen some of the biggest jumps up in prices in Canadian history, some of the biggest drops in prices in Canadian history. What should we expect this year? Will this year be any different? Honestly, who knows? 2025 will include new legislation, new financial products for new building types, a change in the leadership of the country. But at the end of the day, Dan, who knows?

[00:01:27] What we try to do here is we try to paint a bit of a picture as to what this year may look like by analyzing some data, as we are known to do on the show and getting some boots on the ground feedback from our national hosts. And that's why I love these episodes, Dan. It's really a combination of the two sides of real estate, the human side and the number side, the qualitative and the quantitative.

[00:01:48] For sure. And with that, we will go over the Canadian real estate associations most recent update, which you can see on their website at stats.cria.ca, as well as what some of the big banks are saying about this data. And in the second half of the show, we're going to get that more qualitative temp check from Vancouver all the way to Halifax on how the sentiment is in those markets. Actually, I think we got St. John's as well now. So we literally coast to coast or-

[00:02:17] Victoria to St. John's. There we go. As our, what do they call that? Coat of arms says, Amari Uska Admari. Do you know what that means? You are the resident Latin expert, but I think, does it mean from coast to shiny coast or is it something like that? No, it means it's always a good time to buy and sell real estate. Right, right. I forgot the founding fathers of Canada were also real estate bears or bulls. I mean, technically Canada was a real estate play, like colonization back in the day, they would like give land to Europeans to convince them to come over.

[00:02:47] Right, right. Well, we're getting a little off topic there. Super off topic, but it means from sea to shining sea. There we go. Okay, I thought so. So welcome back to another episode of the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast, Canada's number one real estate podcast. And if you are a New Year New Me listener, thank you for joining us. We're happy to have you here. And if this is the year that you want to take action in real estate, well, you are in the right place.

[00:03:12] We have quite literally done hundreds of these podcast episodes where we teach you everything you need to know. We keep you informed on current events in real estate and real estate investing. From everything on simple stuff like how to pick a market or an asset class. How to offer and negotiate on an investment. We go over things like mortgages, fixed and variable and different financing options for different types of projects. Even more creative financing stuff like vendor tape backs.

[00:03:41] We get as complicated as the bond markets and as simple as general real estate terms like the cap rate or debt service coverage ratio. And when we don't know exactly what we're talking about, we even bring on experts to discuss subjects like taxes and joint venture structures and much more. We also have in-person events across the country that are free and a growing online free community and a paid community with consulting and coaching services.

[00:04:09] And if you are a long-time listener and maybe you're already involved in some of those things we do, a sincere thank you for the ongoing support. And if you're thinking about reaching out to us, please do so. We'd love to hear from you. Now, with all that being said, Dan, let's get into today's episode. So, some Canadian cities saw double-digit rent increases while others barely budged. What is driving these dramatic regional differences and what does it mean for 2025?

[00:04:39] Yeah, it's a great question. Tough one to answer. I mean, people are looking at this data and wondering if Canada's housing market is heading into a deep freeze this winter, especially after December's shocking 6% drop in sales has gotten some industry experts talking. And so, Korea released their December statistics along with their hallmark annual optimism heading into January.

[00:05:04] And the big question on everyone's mind is whether or not their optimism is warranted moving into 2025's real estate market. Yeah, I mean, that hallmark optimism is always popular around Christmas with hallmark films. But, you know, does that rom-com trickle its way into the Canadian real estate market? Well, we're not sure yet.

[00:05:24] But, Korea also seems to feel that we may see a resurrection of volume, which would be the overall number of homes sold in 2025. Do we see more or less without prices rising to the point of unaffordability? So, it's really that kind of balancing act on the scales that we're seeing right now. Yeah, I think they might be right. At this point, people are buying homes again because they can afford to.

[00:05:52] And as long as that doesn't change, 2025 should be a good year for realtors, even if it's not a good year for the homeowners who are hoping that their house prices go up. Ah, the classic realtors versus homeowners. Who do we want to keep happy these days? Yeah, I mean, we should certainly hope to see some life in the resale market, given that condo sales are trading at 1996 levels. So, the lowest they've been, yeah.

[00:06:20] So, condo sales finished the year for 2024 at the lowest they've been since 1996, according to a recent report from Urban Nation. And I posted a chart for this in my monthly article on the Real Estate Magazine. But you can also see it on Urban Nation's website. But pretty shocking chart, to be honest with you. Yeah, I mean, let's just quickly go over this chart for a second here, Dan.

[00:06:44] The chart starts in 1986, where it looks to be somewhat normal levels until maybe a massive drop off from 90 to really about 1998. Which just shows you what a massive drop this is to go, you know, 25, 30 years back and really have seen no major difference. Right?

[00:07:10] And we see this kind of aggressive staircase happening in the data after that, but a massive drop. And should this housing correction continue along this path? It looks like we're in for about the third or fourth inning here. And, well, you know, it's been a while until we will see house prices trend upwards again in a meaningful way based off of, you know, history doesn't rhyme. It repeats itself. If we see this repeat itself, man, you know, yes, we will start to see improvements.

[00:07:40] But we've got a long way to go to get back to recent memory. Now, on this, BMO has a really great chart that visualizes this. So for the majority of you that listen to us, we'll do our best to explain it. It's essentially a brief history of Canadian housing corrections and how they stack up against one another.

[00:07:59] If you want a more in-depth analysis on just housing corrections and past recessions and how real estate's performed in them in Canada, Dan, we did a really great episode all the way back. We got to go 265 or four episodes back to our second episode where we went over this. So if you want more info on what Dan is about to explain, we did a basically full episode on this.

[00:08:26] But, Dan, for those, you know, for the few hundred people that watch us on YouTube and for the rest of those listening, can you try to do your best to explain what we're seeing on this chart here? Yeah, I mean, the chart basically shows how a handful of different housing corrections played out in Canada. And the one that it seems to be following the most closely is the 1990s. To date, we're at the second most severe correction that we've seen in Canadian real estate.

[00:08:53] So basically, you've got the 1990s, you've got Vancouver 1994, and then the Ontario 1990s. You've got Calgary 2015, which didn't seem too bad. Toronto 2017, which is one that, you know, a lot of their GTA listeners and Vancouver 2018. Those two probably are the ones that obviously they're the most recent. So they should be the most recent in people's memory. 20, sorry, 2008 as well. Compares them all side by side.

[00:09:21] And anyway, the only housing correction that is worse than what we have experienced to date is Vancouver in 1995. So basically, so far, we are on track to have the second worst measurable housing correction that we've had in Canadian history. And, you know, if you look at that, really, this is a great chart. Like this is probably, this might be like the best chart for this purpose that has been published ever. I love when you get fired up about charts like this.

[00:09:49] I mean, RBC did a perfect, perfect version of this forecasting it. But now seeing it kind of played out so far, really, really cool. Anyway, if you're one of the few people who follows along on our YouTube, definitely want to check this out. If you are just listening, this is probably one of the, I did post this on Twitter, Instagram, etc. Maybe we'll make a chart. Maybe we'll make one of our interactive charts with this because you're right. I think just for people that are trying to get an understanding of where we are, right?

[00:10:18] Like for me, I'm a very visual person. You can say, okay, second worst housing correction. Okay, you're trading sideways, all these things that we've been saying for so long. But when you look at it so visual like this and you can really just follow the lines and say, okay, yeah, like we are not headed in the right direction here. You know, best case scenario, we start to see a more gradual uptick, which would still put us from, you know, years to the peak, which would still put us, you know, years, like five, six years to the peak.

[00:10:46] That's if we can repair things quickly and end up, you know, in the recovery area of like a Calgary 2015. But you're right, Dan, as it stands, we're really kind of trending and following that line of the 1990s, which really like traded sideways for the better part of a decade. Yeah, definitely not a pretty picture, for sure. No, I mean, it is a pretty picture for data, but for the emotional and economic fallout tied to this, no, it is not a pretty picture.

[00:11:13] So, I mean, if you were to say, okay, like if you actually just look at, let's examine this as the range of potential outcomes from where we are. So, if you look at where we are today, if we follow the 90s, which you and I kind of think the setup is pretty similar. Yeah. And not only just us, but we've spoken to many people that have actually, that are double RAs, that have lived through the 90s and they're saying the same thing. Yeah. So, you've got about five to 10% more downside risk and that will take about another three to four years. Okay.

[00:11:42] If we follow the 90s and then you'll start your recovery in year eight, eight years after the peak. Wow. If, you know, in a worst case scenario, if we go to the Vancouver, you know, you would see another 10 to 15% downside and that would take another, that would happen much quicker. That would, that would happen, you know, within the next year or two, year and a half. And then it would recover more quickly thereafter.

[00:12:05] You'd start recovering, you know, in about a year and then it would, you'd be fully recovered to the back to the past peak in eight years. Again, I think that, I don't think we'll see anything as severe as the 90s or sorry, I don't think we'll see anything as severe as the Vancouver example. I think the Ontario 1990s, that sideways market is really what we're currently seeing. We're literally at the exact same point, like the lines are intersecting. Yeah. And it looks like it'll follow that pretty well.

[00:12:33] So for those of you who are wondering kind of where we are in that cycle, based off of this, we're about two and a half years into what could be the better part of a 10 plus year recovery. I guess things start to kind of start recovering, I guess, as you said, Dan, after about eight years, which would mean that we are likely, I'd say at the bare minimum, four plus years away from, you know, things starting to change.

[00:12:59] Now, again, as we said, tons of volatility, new legislation, new financial products, new housing typologies all coming into the mix here. So again, history doesn't repeat itself. It rhymes and we will keep you posted on to how this continues to play out. Actually, I messaged Rob about having him, Rob, the economist who did this report about having him on the show. So just stay tuned for that. Yeah. Awesome. Okay. Well, we're all excited about that. Okay.

[00:13:28] So, I mean, look, after a remarkable fall rebound, the market did see sales activity dip 5.8%. So that's where you get that 6% number in December compared to November. Now, historically, sorry, obviously this has a lot to do with time of the year. December is historically a slower month and people are just, you know, more preoccupied with holidays, family, year end activities, so on and so forth. Yeah, absolutely.

[00:13:54] And so if you kind of back up here and take a first glance, it might seem like this is normal activity for the time of year, but even a bit of a, I don't know, a retreat. But if you dig deeper, the picture tells a different story. This is, you know, a market that seems poised for a potentially significant shift this coming spring. Yeah, exactly. Much like a second period intermission. December, December, December slowdown feels more like a pause than clicking the stop button or an end.

[00:14:23] Despite the dip sales were still 13% above where they stood in May of 2024. And that was just before the Bank of Canada made its first interest rate cut in June. And so the fourth quarter ended up being among the strongest in the past 20 years. So you had a really strong October, November, excluding the pandemic. Then that, you know, would show the resilience of the Canadian consumer and their willingness to buy housing, even amid affordability challenges.

[00:14:48] And what I would call probably the most severe economic uncertainty that at least millennials have had in our lifetimes in Canada. So December's cooling wasn't really a lack of buyers per se, but a scarcity of homes per sale. And so, you know, new listings dropped to 1.7% month over month, according to Korea, which is the third straight decline. And that was after a big surge in new listings in September. I mean, talk about volatility, right? I mean, the fourth quarter was among the strongest in 20 years, including the pandemic.

[00:15:18] But, you know, September's decline year, month over month. It's just really all over the place. I mean, what's the result of this? You know, a market where potential buyers found themselves facing limited options, even as affordability did begin to improve. You know, people were faced with this challenge. And many buyers had to push their purchases to spring of 2025, right? People are still on those proverbial sidelines looking at getting back in the game, trying to, you know, time the market.

[00:15:48] And that is where, you know, fueled Korea's belief that this, quote unquote, pent up demand might play out in the first quarter of this year. So the bigger question in my mind is whether or not we could see a pent up supply scenario rather than a pent up demand scenario. And I would base this on a few key factors. Number one is the impact of a trade war. So the Bank of Canada is predicting as much as a 6% impact on GDP.

[00:16:18] It would decrease on GDP, which would cripple our economy and have some serious negative consequences. Rising unemployment, which was rising, although December was kind of an outlier month. We did add some jobs. So unemployment stopped rising for December. Again, a lot of government jobs and a change in government that promises less government jobs. So less of those government jobs, probably an increase in unemployment and less spending. Yeah. And that's not it.

[00:16:47] There are a few more key factors to add into that mix. You know, increasing purpose built rental supply now adds some competition with investors, right? We've seen the whole condo space and the whole large developer space kind of take a really big shift that they haven't really done in decades. Probably since like the MERB program in the 70s, purpose rentals haven't been this popular since then, right? It's crazy.

[00:17:14] You know, that historical high jump in supply and completions in 2025, 2024 and 2025. Record number of mortgages renewing, which has come up on the show multiple times, right? We all heard about that mortgage cliff, that mortgage renewal wall. Everyone's renewing or refinancing or getting mortgages at higher rates. And then, you know, the pent-up supply argument could be stronger than the one for pent-up demand. So it's, you know, it's a really mixed bag at this point.

[00:17:44] Yeah, I would agree. And I think, you know, there's some more new data that actually came out that the Bank of Canada, I think it was Scotiabank, stated that the Bank of Canada might actually have to hike interest rates as a response to what happens. National bank, yeah. No, I think it was Scotiabank. Or was it Scotiabank? Yeah. Yeah. It's, you know, stated that the Bank of Canada might actually have to hike interest rates in a recent thing that they put out called, I'm going to share this for the YouTube audience,

[00:18:09] spitballing the evolution of Bank of Canada's balance sheet and rate sensitivities to trade wars. They basically modeled out what it would look like for Canada's policy rate changes in response to tariff scenarios and up to 300 basis points of hikes if the tariffs become inflationary, right? Wow. Crazy. Yeah. So whenever we do these episodes, we like to look at the data to determine what kind of market we're in. And, you know, are we in a buyer's market? Are we in a seller's market? Are we in a balanced market?

[00:18:39] And we do this by looking at the sales to new listings ratio from the Canadian Real Estate Association. Yeah, exactly. You've heard us talk about the S and LR, the Solonar, the sales to new listing ratio and these types of episodes before it. Really, it's just a metric that measures the balance of supply and demand in a housing market. It's calculated by dividing the number of homes sold by the number of new listings in a given period and multiplying it by 100.

[00:19:03] You probably don't need to know that, but it is a very important statistic because, again, what type of market determines a lot, right? A seller's market happens when there's a shortage in housing or more potential buyers than homes. We've seen and experienced that in the last few years. A buyer's market, on the other hand, occurs when there is a surplus in housing or more homes for sale than buyers. Look at the Toronto condo market right now.

[00:19:26] And a balanced market happens when there is about the same number of homes for sale as there are buyers. Dan, whereabouts are we landing on that spectrum right now? So the national sales to new listings ratio, which again is a key indicator of market balance, eased back to 56.9% in December from a 17-month high of 59.3% in November. For context, this figure hovers near the long-term average of 55%,

[00:19:55] reinforcing the idea that we're still in a relatively balanced market. Yet, with inventory levels well below historical norms, 128,000 rather than 150,000 properties listed nationally, buyers still remain at a slight disadvantage. So if – I mean, to me, the whole future of Canada's real estate market is going to depend on how much supply we see come online in the spring market. Wow. So we buckle up for spring. Should be an interesting one.

[00:20:24] Okay. So two more quick pieces before we bring our hosts in. I'm really excited for this host piece, Dan. It was such a great call. Anyways, those two more pieces are what can we learn from the December data? And then once we take those learnings, how can we apply them for what is possibly in store for spring of this year? While December 2024 wasn't the blockbuster end of the year that some were hoping for,

[00:20:52] it offers valuable insights to the market's current state and future trajectory. Inventory levels are tight but improving. Prices are stabilizing. And the balance between buyers and sellers is holding steady. Yeah. So, I mean, the question lingers, will the spring market deliver the long-awaited relief that I think not only just buyers are craving, but just maybe just Canadians in general?

[00:21:16] Or will it usher in another cycle of possibly rising prices and interest rate volatility? One thing is clear. 2024 stands as a transitional year, which we experienced neither a full recovery nor a complete correction. Kind of a little bit of limbo. It did offer a glimpses of stability, but left plenty of unanswered questions that hopefully we can find answers for this year in 2025. Is it the calm before the storm? Perhaps.

[00:21:45] But in Canadian real estate, the only constant seems to be change. And speaking of change, Dan, let's look at the spring, where not only the weather heats up here in Canada, but hopefully the market does as well. Yeah. Looking ahead, you know, 2025 spring market could be a turning point. I don't know if it's going to, but, you know, CREA anticipates a notable uptick in activity for 2025 with an estimated 532,000 residential properties

[00:22:14] expected to change hands, 8.6% higher than 2024. I would agree with that. I think we will see a lot of, I think we will see a lot of volume, but that like typically volume happens before price goes up and volume happens because price came down or because things became more affordable. So the market conditions that they mentioned are brewing for this spring that could create that is a couple of the key points. 5.8% dip in sales activity.

[00:22:41] Maybe your buyers kind of left the market in December and are, you know, kind of pushing that demand to the spring because they couldn't find their, again, I mean, you know, listings dropped. They could, maybe they couldn't find the product and they said, okay, we're just going to put this on pause till the spring. Sales to the listing ratio indicates a relatively balanced market. Korea is projecting an 8.6% increase in residential property sales for 2025. And honestly, they got their call kind of right in 2024 on volume. They kind of, they usually miss it on price because they're, they, I think they all, they just always will err on the side of bullishness.

[00:23:12] And you know, they have to for real time. It's like, do you want to be right? Or do you want to make your customers happy? Exactly. Exactly. And then major factors influencing the market, obviously potential trade war impacts, which I think we're going to do a whole episode on unemployment trends and record mortgage renewals, which again, we're in that year now. We're in the year where we're at the, you know, you're, you're the high, most mortgages that have ever renewed are going to renew in 2025. Yeah, exactly. So thanks for the recap there, Dan.

[00:23:40] And, and, you know, as we enter 2025, a few weeks in now, the Canadian real estate market kind of stands at a bit of a pivotal moment, right? As you said, Dan, this, this spring is going to determine a lot affordability concerns, economic uncertainties. They're not going anywhere for the time being, but signs of a bit of market stabilization are affecting people's optimism and, and offering some promising opportunities. And the spring market may usher in some notable shifts,

[00:24:07] particularly dependent on things like interest rates, of course. So with all that being said, Dan, let's now kind of flip the switch and just prepare to bring in our national hosts from a, all the different markets, 26 different markets across the country. We don't have 26 people speaking today, but we do have cross country market updates for you. Yeah. And there are over 5,000 people in our online meetup.com group. These,

[00:24:36] these amazing people, these hosts that you're going to hear from, they host events for us across the country for real estate investors and professionals like yourselves. And I would encourage you to get out and attend them. The attendance was high. I think the hot, the most attendance we've ever had, which was crazy for a January. I didn't expect that, but optimism and sentiment and people are excited. I think to get back into real estate investing in the real estate asset class. Cause again, we're getting, you know, lower rates, lower prices, relative,

[00:25:05] relative bargains when you're comparing to the equities market or crypto, as an example, where it seems like everyone's piling into those markets. Real estate is almost like the forgotten asset class in Canada right now. Good. Forget about it. Leave it for, leave it for us. No, you're right, Dan. And look, the coolest thing, I mean, I think record attendance, multiple places, like with like over a hundred people or hitting that over 50 mark. It was just amazing to hear, you know, the question we asked today's host was about sentiment, right? What is the vibe, right?

[00:25:34] We talked about a vibe session earlier. What's the vibe at these things? Is it, because we've heard it all over the last year that we've been doing these, right? Oh, so, you know, people are hesitant. People are waiting, sitting on the silence, hard to find deals that did not seem to be the case across the country. Optimism and sentiment seem to be high. And we know that that is the visible hand that moves the economy. So listen, don't just take it from us. Let's hear it from our hosts. Jonathan, why don't we start in Toronto? Yeah. Hey everyone,

[00:26:04] Jonathan, help host the Toronto media. We had an awesome start to the year. About 60 people in the room yesterday and a lot of optimism. So, you know, compared to the last few months, I think we've been slowly building up to this, but speaking to a lot of people yesterday, you know, in the mortgage space, people are starting to get their financing in check, kind of get things, get things rolling for the year. And then kind of from a realtor perspective, we heard a lot of sentiment that their clients are starting to kind of book in,

[00:26:34] ask a lot of kind of set up questions to get, get ready for the spring and get their plans sorted out. So felt like a lot more optimism yesterday for sure. Amazing. Love to hear it. Brennan, what's, what's going on with, with you and your meetup in your market? Hey Nick. Yeah, it's Brennan here with Cash and Homes. I actually attended the Edmonton real estate meetup last night. So that was exciting. We're going to be headlining that going forward. I also read on the call here,

[00:27:02] he'll speak to Calgary's because he was there last night, but Edmonton's was good. It was a very, it was a small crowd, but had really good conversations and yeah, people, everyone that was there seemed quite excited about Edmonton. I spent some time in Edmonton too, just kind of canvassing some of the neighborhoods and, you know, pairing that with some of the data I've been looking at. Edmonton looks quite exciting and right for the, right for the picking. So yeah, exciting, May 25 expanding out there. Yeah. Exciting stuff. And you know, it's, it's funny.

[00:27:31] It's one of those places that I cannot go anywhere these days without hearing someone say Edmonton. So sentiment is definitely hot. I, on the ground there, I think across the country in that market. So that's amazing. And you had a good turnout at the meetup. It was actually, it was about 18, 20 people, or I think it hit 20 at a peak. So it was quite small, but I think it'll take a few months just to get that, you know, the, your kind of regulars come back and then just get everyone talking about it again. Cause a lot of people have, you know,

[00:28:01] that event's been going on for like over a year, maybe two years, but it was not really managed properly. So I think now it'll be, it'll be good. Just going to work the room and just get people excited. Yeah. Love it. Appreciate it, man. Thank you. Let's head over to the East coast. Zach, how was, how was your event? What's the sentiment out there? Yeah. Thanks Nick. Zach, Danny from PEI and I organized the meetup here. We had a smaller turnout, but we're in a new location and we're, we're in a cool spot.

[00:28:31] The last couple of months at a luxury car dealer that's joined our crew and he's been willing to host us. So it's been a pretty cool spot to be. Last, last night we had a good decent little turnout and we were able to talk through some goal setting practices and just hear about everybody in the group's goals on a small and a long-term scale too. So it was really a good discussion around the table. In terms of the local market, I would say in, you know, the East coast winters in PEI,

[00:29:00] typically people don't want to move or buy or sell in January and February, but there's actually been, it's been increasing. So I think we're all anticipating a busier spring and definitely a busier winter than we're used to. Great. Love to hear it, man. Thank you for the update. Serge, over to you in Ottawa. We're, we're really jumping across the map, the imaginary map here. So tell me what's going on in the capital city. Yeah. I'm Serge Papadal, the Ottawa meetup.

[00:29:31] I had a great meetup yesterday. We had 30, 35 people. I think it was our most attended one to date. And same as, as what the other hosts have said, like sentiment was, was very optimistic. A lot of people feel like it's going to be strong year. I think we had a lot of the people that were probably sitting on the fence a little bit last year. Like now is the time to, to start seriously looking at it. Awesome. Love to hear it, man. Now let's go all the way back over to the West coast, Alex, Mr. Mortgage Pug.

[00:30:01] How was the first event? Tell us what's going on in your market. Yeah, it was, it was good. It was our first. So as you can imagine, not as big as we would have liked the first time around, but we got, I've been getting messages even while we're chatting here of people saying, Oh, did I miss it? Did I miss it? Did I miss it? So I think just getting the word out there was great, but the people that showed up of which we had about 20 people there were very engaged. Everybody was really happy and enjoyed the experience and said that they loved, loved the place. Man, it was at a great bar and they had live music.

[00:30:31] So who could complain? Right. Yeah. Great. The sentiment was certainly mixed. I would say that about half the crowd was, I'm getting my money out of Canada. And they're talking about investing in Mexico and the U S and the other half is, is trying to figure out what to do with their next move. So either, you know, do they purchase something locally? What is that? Or do they go, you know, to a different province? So it was definitely an interesting mix of crowds. And it was like, for the amount of people there, it was very dynamic.

[00:31:00] Like there was such a broad mix of people. So really excited market wise, like, because this is our first one, it's tough to compare specifically to other people in the industry or other locations. But I would say just genuinely compared to conversations from say six months ago, people have been very optimistic overall, like generally really interested in getting into the marketplace. And we try to obviously avoid a political conversation, but that's obviously leading a lot of the chats too. Yeah.

[00:31:30] Amazing, man. Well, congrats on, on the first one. It's only up from here and I'm confident you guys will really, really crush it. And just, just on the money out of Canada thing. It's so funny. You know, the grass really does always seem to be greener for, for some people until they go and discover that it's probably harder, if not just as hard to, to make those deals happen there. Appreciate the insights, Alex. Let's we'll stay in Vancouver or stay in British Columbia for now. Jessica, I saw some Instagrams. It looked awesome last night. Tell us about your event and, and the sentiment in,

[00:32:00] in Vancouver right now. Yeah. So Jessica here, mortgage broker with clear trust mortgages. I hosted the Vancouver meetup last night and we had a really good turnout. We had like 50 to 60 people. It was actually, I think like a really, really good crowd of a lot of developers. And overall the conversations a lot were about multifamilies. I think similar to Alex, it was like a mixture of people that were actually talking about just not investing in BC and bring their money to other provinces.

[00:32:29] And then a couple of people actually talking about investing in the States as well. But I think overall everyone's pretty optimistic and it was interesting. We actually had a lot of people in the crowds that were starting a development, but actually looking for money. So they were looking for crowdfunding. It was very interesting. It was actually a really good group. I think everyone stayed till like nine 30. So it's late night. It's always a good sign. A little financial solicitation ever hurts, I guess. That's great to hear. Well, well,

[00:32:58] I'm so happy to hear that it was, it was awesome. I know you guys had like over a hundred RSVPs online. So I'm really excited to see what we can all accomplish this year. Thanks so much, Jessica. Let's move over one province, Brett Calgary. Tell us about the sentiment in the event. Yeah, for sure. So I'm Brett. I'm with Cash and Homes. I just recently started. This was my first meetup actually that we hosted and it was really good. It was attended by about 45 or 50 people.

[00:33:27] A lot of actually first time folks looking to really get into investing or developments and whatnot. And so it was really positive, a lot of optimism there. A lot of networking where folks were just kind of connecting with different individuals. One thing that I noticed is there was a lot of, or there was a number of folks that were software developers and then kind of software for property management companies or were looking to do their own thing. And so it was really interesting just to kind of get another perspective on that.

[00:33:56] But yeah, it went really well. A lot of people stayed later and yeah, looking forward to the next one. Amazing. I love to hear that the more diverse a crowd that we can attract and especially with emerging technologies like in the prop tech and construction technology sector, that's really exciting to see that we're attracting those kinds of people. So yeah, man, well done. Love to hear it. I'm going to keep this train moving here. Let's start moving back over to Ontario. Aaron, how did your event go? Yeah,

[00:34:25] we unfortunately had to postpone it. It's our venue. We've had a couple of issues with them. They're not very communicative. So either they need to kind of get a bit more in line with that, or we're just going to have to find a slightly better venue just to keep us updated. But I know in the past, you know, we usually get somewhere between like 20 to 30 people, depending on just how well we kind of promote the event. But it's always a bit of a mix, you know, some realtors, some investors. There's a few like faithful guys that kind of come out every single time, which is,

[00:34:55] which is nice, but it's also good to see the new faces that come out when they do. So, you know, it's a good, it's a good mix of the crowd in terms of like sentiment, what we're seeing for us, you know, we do a lot of like that mid level missing middle financing. So that's, that's kind of our big focus right now. And that stuff is, it's super hot at the moment, especially in the Edmonton market. You know, Edmonton is, it's definitely the easiest market I would say to make things kind of pencil out with. And it's, you know, it's,

[00:35:21] it's pretty funny to see the numbers compared from like Ontario to Edmonton. You can, you know, max out your debt servicing at one, one in Edmonton and still be at a one, three, one, four debt service. And Ontario, you're struggling to hit, you know, max loan to value, loan to cost at that one, one and still have everything cash flowing. So, you know, Edmonton is definitely the favorite of the markets. I think we see Ontario still pretty popular to very popular. Toronto is popular with the zoning changes. Kitchener is pretty hot as well, too.

[00:35:50] Going to be interesting to see what happens in Hamilton with the land transfer tax and whether they double up on that and what that does to the market there. But, you know, for us, the big focus and the big thing that we're seeing are these eight to 24 unit midsize developments. That's a hot topic. Love it. Appreciate the insights mania. I wouldn't say the numbers are funny. It's more kind of frustrating and sad, but you know, that's just something we've got to deal with. I appreciate it. And for anyone listening that wants to attend the Hamilton event, these guys put on a really great,

[00:36:20] really great event with great people. So appreciate that, Aaron. You guys will be back next month going hard. Okay. Let's we're still in Ontario. We're going to go Cam Vandersluis. How was London, my friend? What's going on y'all? It's Cam Vandersluis here in London, Coldwell Banker Power Realty. London was booming last night. This was, I would say this was our second biggest event that we've done. We're still, I think we're just under, I think that was our seventh, seventh event, seventh month.

[00:36:50] So it's still snowballing. It's fun to see, you know, the people that have been coming out to these things are bringing friends. They're, the feedback has always been amazing. And so we're getting a diverse group of people out, investors, mortgage brokers, realtors, financial experts, accountants, everyone that's, you know, they want to talk, they want to meet new people and learn new things. So yeah, the feedback's been amazing. And it's really encouraging to see the numbers snowball. I would say the sentiment in our market is people are so hungry for new inventory.

[00:37:19] We are hitting still record high numbers of new listings, but it's a lot of stuff just being recycled from the end of last year that didn't sell. A lot of the stale stuff that is not priced attractively to people. So everyone in every space is just hungry for new inventory. There's, there've been a few hot listings that have really sold well over the last couple of weeks. So it's, it's interesting to see that the demand is definitely there for new well-priced properties. Um,

[00:37:49] really in every single sector, residential investment, multifamily, if it's hot, it'll sell. Love it. That's great to hear, man. And, uh, keep up the great work. That's, uh, that's awesome to hear. We're going to take a quick trip over to the tri cities area. Zach DeJong, how did things go for you last night? What's the sentiment in your market? Hey, Zach DeJong here with the mortgage center KW. Just, uh, you know, I'm the host for the Kitchener Waterloo region. Uh, it was good, man. We had our consistent, you know,

[00:38:18] 30 people show up. We're hoping to get that a little bit bigger, a little bit more consistently around that 40, 45 person mark. So, you know, you got any friends, come on out. Uh, we switched up, you know, hosted a few, had a few additions to it. It's more, you know, just give back to the clients. Our hot seat was great. We had a lot of interaction with the, with the crowd. A lot of our consistent people came back and we're connecting with some of the newer people. So we like to see that, uh,

[00:38:47] a few more realtors, a few more mortgage people. Yeah. And it was just nice to see them, uh, you know, giving that support to those people that are newer to the group or, you know, introducing the people they may know from the group that, uh, is going to benefit them getting to their next level. As for like our market in this area, I mean, me, myself, I do residential and commercial. So on the residential side, we've seen it kind of, you know, up and down. It's almost like week by week. It's, uh, it's interesting. I mean,

[00:39:17] obviously with the bond yield increase, it's kind of like a stall out, but, uh, you know, it's still good. A lot of refinance is happening in those good, good things. Now with the commercial side, I mean, Aaron had mentioned it too in their area of Hamilton, uh, the infill stuff, yeah, we have a few clients that I've been working with and talking with and connecting them with realtors who operate in that space and that infill. Seeing that you developments go in and that 10 unit, 15 unit type, uh,

[00:39:46] projects. So, I mean, those are good and the appraisals are still coming in nice for that. So, I mean, uh, that's pretty much it right now. Uh, hopefully everybody's gearing up for a busier spring. Uh, that seems to be the topic of last night. you know, that's great. Everybody kind of predicting it. The realtor saying, Oh yeah, it's, it's just stalling right now, but we'll hopefully see that boom in the spring. You know, and, uh, and, everything kind of settles down in the market, lawn markets for sure.

[00:40:16] Love it. Appreciate the insights as always, man. Sounds like things are, are chugging along there, uh, quite nicely. Um,

[00:40:49] okay. 60, 70 people. The room was bumping. People were having a good time. People were connecting. We're discussing deals. We're discussing opportunities. And then I think it was really nice. What we did with that Q and a session where people are able to ask you guys and ask a couple of questions. And the room really got quiet and got to pour into it. And we got to pour into it. That was a really fun experience. Again, thank you guys so much for that. In terms of the Montreal market, I was actually just going through our barometer and sales were up 48% in Q4 of the last year. So sales are incredibly high right now. Um,

[00:41:19] almost double digit increasing in prices across the board between eight to 9% or almost 10% in every single property category. So, uh, the Quebec market, which is usually forgotten about has been on fire and will continue to be right now. We have a huge, um, lack of supply is the reality. The vacancy rates are still below 2% sitting at about 1.8%. So the rental market has been red hot. Obviously that's translating into investors, jumping back in. So all we needed was interest rates kind of dip below that 5% mark to get us to where we are now. And 2025 is going to be a big year.

[00:41:49] There's still a lot of opportunity. We're talking about, um, optimization deals, burrs, stuff of that nature. And we still have a lot of those potentials here in Montreal. So if you are looking to talk about the market, feel free to reach out. My name is LJ Ganaga with LJ Realty. Yeah. Amazing. Thank you so much, OJ. And again, um, I hadn't personally been in Montreal in years and man, what a wonderful city. You guys, you guys have full of opportunities. So, and, and a fairly new meetup as well. So for those listening that are in Montreal and considering getting out, uh, go, it's a very welcoming environment,

[00:42:18] just like every single one of these meetups are, uh, last, but far from least, we're going to head all the way over, uh, to the East coast, back to where we started from. Mr. Ryan McNeil, tell me about your event and, uh, and the sentiment in your market. Thanks, Nick. yeah, Ryan McNeil here with Keystone capital, private lender out here in Atlanta, Canada. Uh, last night had a great event, slightly lower turnout than usual. We had about 20 people show up. Uh, it was actually kind of an ideal number. It was a little bit easier to circulate the room within a,

[00:42:48] within a couple hours. So that was kind of nice. I'd say sentiment overall for us, given we haven't dipped off the peak of the markets, been, uh, quite a bit of uncertainty last night, uh, just where, where, where growth rates have really slowed in the past year. And it feels kind of like we're going back to like a, a regular real estate market with, uh, with some seasonality. So hopefully things are going to pick back up as we, uh, as we enter the spring market here, but it does feel like we'll have more of a normal market with maybe a little bit less, uh, volatility in 2025.

[00:43:18] But from our perspective, you know, despite, despite the, uh, slow growth, Nova Scotia is still an excellent market in Atlantic Canada for that matter. in terms of investment, uh, a stats can report came out recently that's that showed three in 10 on average buyers in Atlantic are investors versus most other provinces are two in 10, right? So, you know, pretty impressive numbers and it makes sense given the relative values out here. So still super bullish on the investment market out here. Great to hear. That is a wrap on, uh, on today's call. Everybody,

[00:43:48] thank you so much for, for attending. Thank you so much for throwing the meetups and, um, for all of those listening across the country, go out and attend on these things. These, every single person here, uh, is doing this for you. And a lot of them have great Instagram accounts or podcasts or radio shows. So go support them. Everyone on this call is here to provide you and your real estate journey, uh, some values. So a sincere thank you to everybody. And we will see you next month.

[00:44:17] The content of this podcast is for educational and informational purposes. Only. It is not intended as financial legal or investment advice. Always consult a qualified professional for advice tailored to your unique circumstances. The views expressed are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of affiliated organizations. Daniel Foch is a real estate broker licensed with Valerie real estate Inc. Website is Valerie.ca. V A L E R Y.ca.

[00:44:45] And a member of the Canadian real estate association, the Ontario real estate association, and the Toronto real estate board. Nick Hill is a mortgage agent and partner at owl mortgage license number one zero three one seven agent license M two one zero zero four zero three seven. Okay.