Are We There Yet? The Road To Real Estate Recovery

[00:00:00] Welcome to The Canadian Real Estate Investor, where hosts Daniel Foch and Nick Hill navigate the market and provide the tools and insights to build your real estate portfolio.

[00:00:12] The path ahead is winding and uncertain, marked by the footsteps of those who ventured before us.

[00:00:20] Some paths are well-worn, their destinations clear and predictable. Others are overgrown, challenging us to forge new ways forward through untruths.

[00:00:32] In the real estate market, we find ourselves on such a path. One that demands both courage to move forward and wisdom to navigate its twists and turns.

[00:00:43] Like ancient traders seeking new routes or explorers charting unknown territories, we must adapt to the changing landscape before us.

[00:00:52] The familiar markers we once relied upon, predictable interest rates, steady price appreciation, reliable market cycles have shifted beneath our feet.

[00:01:05] Yet it is often on such uncertain paths that the greatest opportunities emerge.

[00:01:11] When walking this path, one can't help but ask the important questions such as...

[00:01:18] Are we there yet?

[00:01:20] Because what was supposed to be an epic road to recovery, like the poem you just read...

[00:01:26] Thank you.

[00:01:26] To me, has now become a long and drawn out, perhaps Christmas road trip since we're in a Christmas theme here.

[00:01:35] So today we're going to talk about that as well as a few other things.

[00:01:38] We're going to go through the statistics from the Canadian Real Estate Association.

[00:01:41] We're going to hear from our meetup hosts coast to coast on what's going on in their markets, because it is definitely varying on a market by market basis.

[00:01:48] And we're going to look at what are the key metrics for each market and how are they performing?

[00:01:52] Yeah.

[00:01:53] And since this is probably one of the last times we're going to do a market report this year in 2024, I'd also like to do a little bit of a sign off and a thank you.

[00:02:04] Happy holidays and happy New Year's to all of you.

[00:02:07] We wish you the best and we thank you so, so much for the ongoing support.

[00:02:13] I can't wait for the New Year's rush of new listeners.

[00:02:18] So welcome if you're a new listener, by the way.

[00:02:20] Yeah. Instead of New Year, new me for us, Dan, it's usually New Year, new listeners.

[00:02:25] I love it.

[00:02:26] Yeah. I won't even knock the New Year, new me people.

[00:02:28] I respect the hustle.

[00:02:29] Like I think it is important to look yourself in the mirror and decide you want to change something.

[00:02:33] But I still think the biggest issue people have is following up with goals because they lack accountability.

[00:02:40] Right.

[00:02:40] And I feel like the whole world of success coaching is basically just people paying for accountability.

[00:02:45] It's like personal training almost.

[00:02:47] It just gets you to the gym.

[00:02:49] Yeah, for sure.

[00:02:50] One of the things that you've always done really well with.

[00:02:53] You've helped me years ago and I've been able to stick to them.

[00:02:57] And I know that you check on your goals on like a weekly basis.

[00:03:03] Yeah, it's just a system that I built that works really well.

[00:03:06] I literally just review my goals every single week and make sure that I'm hitting the milestones necessary to get to them.

[00:03:12] And on that note, I would like to mention that we are going to run a free year long challenge in 2025.

[00:03:16] I did say free to help you stay accountable to your goals.

[00:03:21] You'll get a bunch of calendar invites reminding you to post your progress weekly in our goal settings thread on the free school group.

[00:03:27] So whether you're a realtor, investor, mortgage broker, and you've got goals you want to reach in the new year, let us help you.

[00:03:33] Now, Canadian real estate had all of the hallmarks of a great comeback story, a hallmark movie, if you will.

[00:03:41] Interest rates are falling.

[00:03:42] House prices are down from their peak.

[00:03:45] Affordability is seemingly returning to the market.

[00:03:48] The government was throwing policy at the housing problem despite warnings from the Bank of Canada.

[00:03:53] It sounds like the setup of a great recovery.

[00:03:57] The only question is, when does this start?

[00:04:01] When do we get there?

[00:04:02] Or like I said, are we there yet?

[00:04:05] Instead of the familiar and predictable road, we're now taking the road less traveled.

[00:04:09] Countless familiar signs have passed us by yielding basically no result.

[00:04:12] We've been stuck in a state of wondering if, not when, in fact, we'd see any signs of market recovery appear.

[00:04:19] Now, for years, industry reports have highlighted, and you've heard it before, the quote unquote buyers on the sidelines that are waiting for market conditions to change.

[00:04:30] You've heard it.

[00:04:30] We've said it.

[00:04:32] Those sidelines have been full for years.

[00:04:34] It seems that the key factor everyone is watching and waiting for is simply whether prices are going to be rising or falling.

[00:04:42] Nick, do you like chips?

[00:04:43] Okay.

[00:04:43] Random question.

[00:04:44] But what kind of chips are we talking here?

[00:04:46] Are there poker chips, computer chips, sun chips?

[00:04:49] I mean, computer chips would be good actually.

[00:04:51] I got like a Nvidia theme going here.

[00:04:52] But I'm talking about like your classic like chips and dip.

[00:04:55] Oh, you got to have the dip, baby.

[00:04:57] Well, how about buying the dip?

[00:04:59] Okay.

[00:04:59] That sounds equally as delicious.

[00:05:02] Yeah.

[00:05:03] So we'll call this first piece by the dip.

[00:05:06] If you have been on the internet once before in some sort of stock market forum, I'm sure you've seen the term by the dip.

[00:05:12] Usually with an expletive somewhere in there.

[00:05:14] Is it possible that we might see a rush of buyers trying their hand at the seemingly impossible task of buying the bottom of the market or catching the falling knife, we might say.

[00:05:27] Okay.

[00:05:27] The age old advice of time in the market, not timing the market seems to be ringing in my ear.

[00:05:33] At a minimum, the idea might be buying the expletive dip as popularized by Wall Street bets.

[00:05:40] And since we don't have an online community of options trading degeneracy in Canada, we are focused our speculative fever on the housing market until we couldn't do that any longer.

[00:05:51] And so it appears that when people might say they're waiting to see the dip or the bottom of the real estate market, they might actually have been looking in the rear view mirror.

[00:05:59] This isn't to say that the bottom is in per se, but there just seems to be a lot more buyers after three months of consecutive price growth in the market and volume growth in the market than there was during three months of declining price and volume.

[00:06:15] Now, the ironic part about the whole market timing thing is if you want to be the bottom tick on that market, you have to be buying on the way down.

[00:06:27] If you're the buyer submitting below market offers and pulling sales prices down, you actually create that dip.

[00:06:35] You don't just have to buy it.

[00:06:36] So this is like homemade dip that you're doing.

[00:06:38] You're not going to the store to buy this dip.

[00:06:40] Going to buy some sour cream and toss some spices in there.

[00:06:44] It is like that seven layer nacho dip that you're creating at home, right?

[00:06:47] You create the market.

[00:06:48] You don't time the market.

[00:06:49] So this is an advice.

[00:06:51] Make your dip at home.

[00:06:52] It's too expensive to go buy the dip in the store these days.

[00:06:55] Yeah.

[00:06:56] So we're on this journey, but where are we on it?

[00:06:59] What's next, right?

[00:07:00] Are we going to see a recovery?

[00:07:02] Are we going to see relief?

[00:07:03] Or are we going to see a rally?

[00:07:05] We are firm believers in, you know, numbers speak louder than words.

[00:07:10] And until last month, data hadn't really indicated even the slightest chance of recovery.

[00:07:14] September appeared out of character with typical back to school rush was kind of slow against the backdrop of the U.S. election.

[00:07:22] And the fall market didn't really show up.

[00:07:25] And now, equally contrarian, we're seeing a strong November where typically the market is slowing down towards the holiday season.

[00:07:34] If we see a sustained pressure on the market heading into December, it would be reasonable to imagine that the market could be seeing a little bit of a resurrection in volume from lower rates, increased buying power.

[00:07:46] And I didn't say prices, by the way.

[00:07:48] And a lot of this is also optimism around new mortgage policy, which we're going to discuss with our meetup hosts later in this episode.

[00:07:54] Yeah.

[00:07:54] And we did, however, see increased buyer activity, which also pushed sales a bit higher.

[00:07:59] Home sales rose 2.8%.

[00:08:01] So nominal rise there from November in November, sorry, from October, the second straight monthly gain.

[00:08:08] That was up 18.4% from May.

[00:08:11] And this follows a slow period in early 2024, which was largely blamed for that lingering higher for longer interest rate and the sentiment around that.

[00:08:22] Now, with the Bank of Canada slashing rates at recession ready pace, sideline buyers have apparently been pulled back into the market.

[00:08:30] So giddy up.

[00:08:33] Not surprisingly, activity was strongest in Canada's usual suspects, the powerhouses, the GTA, greater Vancouver area, Calgary and Montreal.

[00:08:42] Smaller cities in Alberta and Ontario also reported double digit increases.

[00:08:45] However, this surge in activity raises a critical question about whether it represents a genuine recovery or, like we've seen before, a temporary spike driven by policy tweaks that artificially boosted demand.

[00:09:01] We'll see what happens when we do the next few CREA stat episodes on how this continues to unfold.

[00:09:08] Yeah, you mentioned activity being strongest in the GTA, Vancouver, Calgary and Montreal.

[00:09:13] Obviously, like the big cities just have more houses.

[00:09:15] So I was to sell there.

[00:09:17] But this is crazy.

[00:09:18] So I have a chart up here that it was done by my friends at Valerie.ca, my team there.

[00:09:23] I didn't actually make this chart myself.

[00:09:24] And it's a pie chart.

[00:09:27] So you literally have a pie chart and it shows the percentage of homes of total dollar volumes.

[00:09:35] So like the total value of real estate that changed hands in each province.

[00:09:39] And Ontario is like, what is it?

[00:09:41] Forty five point six percent of the total dollar volume of real estate sales in Canada again.

[00:09:46] So it's really climbed back to like this.

[00:09:48] This shows you.

[00:09:49] I mean, if you look at just Ontario and BC on this chart, Ontario and BC are like almost 75 percent of the whole market.

[00:09:57] So like they can easily skew the entire market just by.

[00:10:02] And they do consistently.

[00:10:03] Yeah, they do.

[00:10:04] Yeah, they do.

[00:10:05] Anyway, so we talk a lot about cyclicality on this show.

[00:10:08] Right.

[00:10:09] But we also talk about seasonality in Canada and how it impacts market behaviors of buyers.

[00:10:14] So winter is typically a quiet season for real estate.

[00:10:17] You'll see December is pretty much shut down.

[00:10:20] January is also very slow as buyers and sellers tend to wait for the spring market when Canadians come out of hibernation.

[00:10:26] Right.

[00:10:27] I mean, it's just a lot easier to buy and sell real estate when you don't have to drive through the snow and all that stuff.

[00:10:33] You know, pour vodka in your lock boxes or whatever to get them unfrozen.

[00:10:38] Is that like a Russian hack or something?

[00:10:40] I would say hand sanitizer, but I think realtors are more likely to have vodka than hand sand on them.

[00:10:46] This winter, however, the market may break from tradition with the overnight rate dropping 50 basis points to 3.25 percent.

[00:10:54] And September's mortgage reforms taking effect in December, which is the new CMHC thing, which honestly, actually most of our meetup posts said it didn't really have an impact on their market.

[00:11:02] It creates a bit of an appealing scenario for sellers where more buyers have more money now competing for their houses typically could mean faster sales and higher prices.

[00:11:12] The question is, are there as many sellers on the sideline as there are buyers, right?

[00:11:18] Well, speaking of sellers then, and if you are one of those people that is looking to sell, the market actually continues to tilt in your favor.

[00:11:27] The sales to new listing ratio, the SNLR, which measures market balance, rose to 59.2 percent in November.

[00:11:36] That's a significant jump from the 52, 53 percent range that has spent a lot of time in earlier this year signaling a tightening of the market with fewer new listings coming to market down almost a percent month over month.

[00:11:50] Buyers are left to compete for an ever shrinking pool of homes.

[00:11:54] Now, the supply of these homes has dropped to its lowest point in more than a year with only 3.7 months of inventory available nationwide.

[00:12:03] For context, a balanced market typically has four to six months of inventory.

[00:12:08] So we're just outside of that balanced market territory.

[00:12:11] And who knows where we will head from here.

[00:12:15] But talk to me about what's happening with prices, Dan.

[00:12:18] Yeah, so prices started to rise again.

[00:12:20] November saw the first notable increase in home prices in nearly 18 months.

[00:12:23] The HPI rose from 0.6 percent from October, while the actual national average house price was up 7.4 percent year over year compared to November 2023.

[00:12:35] So the rising prices indicate demand is driving up home values, especially in urban centers and popular smaller markets.

[00:12:45] So like especially your Calgary, Edmonton, I guess those aren't smaller, but like your – sorry, Halifax, Moncton, et cetera.

[00:12:53] Like a lot of those markets you're seeing – we'll get to it because we're going to talk about what happened with prices on a province-by-province basis.

[00:12:59] But you're seeing a lot of growth happening in these smaller markets where all of your affordable buyers started getting pushed into when people kind of left during that COVID exodus.

[00:13:10] So the market still is showing early signs of recovery, I would say, rather than runaway growth.

[00:13:16] And that 7.4 percent statistic, you'll see like a lot of markets are still below – well, actually, a couple of markets are still below their peak in 2022.

[00:13:24] It's easy to celebrate price growth as people in the real estate profession, but the long-term trend still kind of looks like a flat market that I've been droning on and on about for the last few years, which you can see in the charts.

[00:13:35] Like if you really look at it, if you look at a price chart for Canadian real estate right now, it's basically like a spike.

[00:13:41] And then it's just like this flat section where the price has basically just been bouncing along kind of for the past couple of years.

[00:13:49] And if it does that long enough, eventually it'll catch that long-term trend line, that 4.11 percent annual growth, and it'll probably return to that long-term trend line.

[00:13:57] So it doesn't have to drop per se to get back to the trend line.

[00:14:01] It's the easiest way to get back to the trend line, but it's not always the most likely.

[00:14:05] Yeah, that's a great point, Dan.

[00:14:07] You know, Korea is looking at this as well.

[00:14:09] And their take is that they feel that the inventory situation reveals a chronic problem.

[00:14:16] Canada's housing supply continues to fall short of demand, right?

[00:14:20] We've talked about this so many times, supply and demand issue here in housing.

[00:14:24] By the end of November, there were just over 160,000 properties listed for sale nationally, which is 8.9 percent higher than a year ago.

[00:14:35] However, it remains well below the long-term average of $178,000 at that same time.

[00:14:41] The real estate industry suggests that this shows we don't have enough housing supply.

[00:14:46] Surprise, surprise.

[00:14:47] I don't think we had to look at that number to figure that out.

[00:14:51] However, you could also ask and look at it differently.

[00:14:54] These numbers can actually show that there are plenty of potentials for the market to see growth.

[00:15:00] Now, with all this considered, this is still the highest supply environment we've seen since the beginning of the pandemic with clearly visible and steep upward trends in active listings each year.

[00:15:12] So, and that's all since the rate hiking cycle began.

[00:15:15] And now we're on the other side of that with a rate cutting cycle.

[00:15:19] So, funny to be doing this report right now because I feel like so many things are having impacts on it, right, from the seasonality to the hiking cycle to the cutting cycle now.

[00:15:30] The fact that we're in winter, it's just weird.

[00:15:33] So, after, you know, the long depths of dark winter here in Canada, and there's something called the spring market where things usually change.

[00:15:42] Yeah, it's interesting, like, in regards to that, the supply side that you mentioned, like, we are at, like, even though new listings volume, if you look at, like, the Korea new listings chart, it seems like it's lower than October and we're not seeing a lot of new supply.

[00:15:56] But supply also isn't selling as quickly.

[00:15:57] And so, active listings are trending up.

[00:16:00] And if you look at, like, you know, we're kind of, we're still well below, like you mentioned, we're still well below that long-term average, which means that, you know, active listings, like total supply really could get back to that long-term scenario.

[00:16:10] That you kind of saw between, like, 2008 and 2000, well, basically 2020, where, you know, you've got over 200,000 active listings rather than where we're at right now, which is over, you know, just over 150,000 active listings.

[00:16:23] So, this is where, you know, you mentioned the spring market.

[00:16:25] The spring market's performance, from my perspective, could really be the determining factor in the direction of Canadian real estate and decide whether or not we have a recovery taking place.

[00:16:34] So, we are seeing some positive signs from lower rates and market momentum, but there are some obstacles still.

[00:16:41] Spring is usually the busiest time for home sales, which usually shows us how the rest of the year will go.

[00:16:45] But there are some worries that could slow down buying activity, right?

[00:16:49] These, from my perspective, include fears about a possible economic downturn, slower population growth, which we're seeing, slower rent growth, which we're seeing.

[00:16:58] And we're going to go through in our CMHC rental report episode, more people losing their jobs.

[00:17:04] And even though lower mortgage rates and more affordable home prices might help buyers, these economic challenges could also make people hesitate to buy homes.

[00:17:12] So, that headwind is something we need to be aware of as well.

[00:17:15] Yeah, for sure.

[00:17:16] You know, the key question remains whether the current momentum can build enough steam to overcome these challenges.

[00:17:22] Early indicators from December and January activity will be crucial in gauging whether this, quote unquote, recovery has staying power or if it's just merely another one of those temporary responses to policy change and rate cuts.

[00:17:38] That'll be a little blip in the next chart that we look at.

[00:17:41] Yeah, it's always the same story, right?

[00:17:44] And it's hard to shake that sense of deja vu that you get from the industry.

[00:17:49] Time and time again, interest rate cuts are rolled out as a quick fix and a perceived boost to the housing market only to exacerbate the underlying issues and kick the can down the road.

[00:17:58] Yeah, and lower rates make borrowing more affordable in theory.

[00:18:02] But they do not solve the core disparity between income and house prices where the real problem lies.

[00:18:09] And relaxed mortgage rules might help some secure financing, but it'll also prop up demand in a market that's already starved for supply.

[00:18:19] So this really does seem to be a double-edged sword.

[00:18:23] Yeah, I think it could continue putting pressure on households in Canada that are obviously already feeling like they're at their end, right?

[00:18:30] So before we hop on to a conversation with our hosts, let's quickly look at how house prices have changed across Canada.

[00:18:38] So average house prices by province, November 2024.

[00:18:43] BC, $984,000.

[00:18:45] Alberta, $496,000.

[00:18:47] Saskatchewan, $318,000.

[00:18:49] Manitoba, $374,000.

[00:18:52] Ontario, $868,000.

[00:18:55] Quebec, $554,000.

[00:18:58] New Brunswick, $315,000.

[00:19:00] Nova Scotia, $442,000.

[00:19:03] PEI, $401,000.

[00:19:05] Newfoundland and Labrador, $330,000.

[00:19:08] Yukon, $519,000.

[00:19:11] And in Northwest Territory, $465,000.

[00:19:14] So New Brunswick, lowest house prices in the country right now on average.

[00:19:18] Now let's take those and look at the change in price since the 2022 market peak.

[00:19:27] Okay, we're going to start with Ontario, which has seen the biggest drop at minus 20%.

[00:19:34] Then we see British Columbia, which is down another 11%.

[00:19:38] Northwest Territories declined 15%.

[00:19:41] However, Newfoundland and Labrador up 25%.

[00:19:46] Oh my goodness.

[00:19:47] So that's since rate hikes started basically.

[00:19:49] That's wild.

[00:19:50] PEI increased 14%.

[00:19:52] Wow.

[00:19:53] East Coast is just on fire.

[00:19:54] Quebec rose 10%.

[00:19:56] And most other provinces saw a more modest gain of between 3% and 7%.

[00:20:03] And over the past year, if you just take that growth basically since November of last year,

[00:20:08] Manitoba leads with 14% growth.

[00:20:10] New Brunswick is up 12%.

[00:20:11] Alberta, Saskatchewan, Quebec, and Newfoundland are all up 11%.

[00:20:15] Only the Northwest Territories declined 11% on a year-over-year basis.

[00:20:20] And more volatile, there's not a lot of stuff trading hands.

[00:20:23] All other provinces saw gains between 2% to 9%.

[00:20:26] And then just in the last month, Newfoundland showed the strongest growth at 4%.

[00:20:32] PEI up 2%.

[00:20:33] And several of the other provinces remained fairly flat.

[00:20:38] Yukon dropped 4%.

[00:20:39] And New Brunswick also decreased 4%.

[00:20:43] Yeah.

[00:20:44] And so looking at it on a month-to-month basis is kind of a little bit too volatile for some of these smaller markets.

[00:20:49] So it's really hard to get a grasp for whether or not things are going up or down.

[00:20:52] So really, that's why I look at more over the past year and then what's the change since the peak, which really only Ontario and BC are down.

[00:20:58] So again, you're seeing a lot of growth in these markets outside of Ontario and BC, which is just a reflection.

[00:21:04] Like, you know, you see the decentralization of the workplace.

[00:21:07] People are starting to move around to places they can afford.

[00:21:09] Incomes are pretty much similar across the country, except maybe in the prairies they're a bit higher, well, especially Alberta.

[00:21:15] And, you know, people are going where they can afford houses.

[00:21:17] And those markets are growing in price.

[00:21:19] Who would have thought?

[00:21:20] I think you're only going to see that trend continue as boomers start to leave the expensive cities that they all own houses in and try to find some cheaper areas for them to retire.

[00:21:30] And then they can become snowbirds, right?

[00:21:32] So I think like Atlantic Canada is really bullish for me in the long term because, you know, people will say, oh, I'm going to go live in the summer on the ocean in Atlantic Canada.

[00:21:40] I'll still be like, you know, a stone's throw from the GTA.

[00:21:43] I can catch a flight in an hour and a half or two hours.

[00:21:46] And then I can also go down to Florida or whatever in the winter.

[00:21:51] So snowbird culture is probably going to drive the next phase of what happens with these more affordable markets in the city or in the country, I really feel like.

[00:21:58] So before we hop over to the host here, a reminder, we do have a course community.

[00:22:04] It's an awesome community.

[00:22:05] Lots of people doing deals.

[00:22:06] Yeah.

[00:22:07] Absolutely crushing deals.

[00:22:08] Love to see it.

[00:22:08] On our last call, sort of interrupted that, Dan, I just had like one of the best.

[00:22:12] I mean, we have so many great memories and now friends and clients and colleagues and all the amazing people in there.

[00:22:18] But there was a call I did last week and there was six people on it.

[00:22:21] And every single one of those people was literally doing like a live deal either that day or that week.

[00:22:27] Man, it was so awesome to see all different types of deals, East Coast, West Coast, Prairie Provinces, Ontario, you know, different strategies, different asset classes.

[00:22:37] It put a big, big smile on my face.

[00:22:40] And everyone on that call was just like, hey, we couldn't have done it without you guys.

[00:22:43] Whether it was the knowledge we had given them, the stuff we had taught them, the investment thesis that we had helped work on them with the client or the colleagues of ours, Dan, across the country that we introduced them to that they're working with, whether it be realtors, mortgage brokers, inspectors.

[00:23:00] It was just a really, really great moment.

[00:23:02] And one of many countless great moments I think you and I have had in that in our community.

[00:23:08] So, yeah, go check that.

[00:23:09] The link is in the show notes.

[00:23:10] Also, we have a meetup.com with almost 5,000 people.

[00:23:14] And if you are listening to this, it is Christmas Eve, I believe.

[00:23:18] So, our goal is to have 5,000 members in the meetup.com.

[00:23:24] Link is also in the show notes.

[00:23:25] And if you join, there is a giveaway with our good friends over at Sherwin-Williams.

[00:23:30] Dan, you've got one last piece here.

[00:23:32] And then we're going to get over to the segment with our lovely national hosts.

[00:23:38] Yeah.

[00:23:38] So, as I mentioned, the New Year's goal-setting program.

[00:23:41] If you want to just go to the link in the show notes or go to realist.ca, join us for that.

[00:23:46] We want to help other people achieve their goals.

[00:23:48] It kind of helps us stay accountable too.

[00:23:49] So, love to see you in there.

[00:23:50] It's free.

[00:23:51] It's year-long.

[00:23:51] We'll keep you accountable on a weekly basis.

[00:23:53] There will be monthly check-in calls.

[00:23:55] And let's crush it together in 2025.

[00:23:58] Anyway, let's get to the host because I got a lot of good takeaways on this.

[00:24:00] What we're going to ask them about whether or not this new CMHC extension to 1.5 million that just came out on December 15th has had any impact on the sentiment in their market.

[00:24:11] And the results surprised me.

[00:24:12] So, let's get into it.

[00:24:14] Okay.

[00:24:15] We are back here joined by a group of my favorite Canadians actually.

[00:24:19] Our meetup hosts from across the country.

[00:24:21] So, last night we hosted our holiday party in Toronto.

[00:24:26] It was great.

[00:24:26] Jonathan is going to talk a little bit about that I think or I hope.

[00:24:29] But also we had other meetups hosted coast to coast.

[00:24:35] And these meetups are hosted on a monthly basis by the people you're going to hear from today.

[00:24:39] Typically the second Tuesday of every month.

[00:24:42] What we're going to do is we're going to quickly go through who they are, what they do, how their meetup was.

[00:24:48] The kind of people who are out there at their meetup.

[00:24:49] And then we're going to hear from them on what impact, if any, has been seen by CMHC's policy that's coming out on December 15th.

[00:25:00] Where they're increasing the insured mortgage amount from a million to 1.5 million.

[00:25:05] My guess is you're going to see it being less impactful in markets like Dawson's as an example.

[00:25:11] Where the average house price or the first time home buyer house price and your CMHC insured house price is probably not really limited by that $1 million mark.

[00:25:20] Whereas you might see a bigger impact in a market like James's where, you know, I think first time home buyer who just unlocked their budget from 1 million to 1.5.

[00:25:33] Might now have a greater degree of demand heading into the spring market.

[00:25:37] So, I'm interested to hear your takes.

[00:25:39] So, let's start off with Brennan in Calgary.

[00:25:42] Brennan, how was your meetup last night?

[00:25:44] And are you seeing any impact from this proposed increase of the CMHC policy from 1 million to 1.5 million?

[00:25:52] Hey everyone, it's Brennan here with Cash in Homes.

[00:25:55] As Dan mentioned, I run the Calgary event.

[00:25:58] It was a great turnout.

[00:25:59] Lots of new investors, some builders, brokers.

[00:26:04] Just a lot of great conversations as per usual.

[00:26:06] That's been pretty consistent on that front.

[00:26:08] So, if anyone's in Calgary, please come down.

[00:26:12] It's really good just to get out and network.

[00:26:14] Yeah, as for the CMHC policy changes, honestly, I haven't heard anything.

[00:26:20] So, I would imagine there was like almost no impact.

[00:26:24] But again, it's pretty early to tell.

[00:26:26] So, maybe answering that question in a few months, I'll have a little bit more to say on it.

[00:26:32] But I honestly, I don't think people are affected really in the Calgary market from that.

[00:26:36] Yeah, I guess like your first time home buyer would be probably buying a house of like what?

[00:26:40] It's $650 to $850 range there?

[00:26:45] Yeah, even lower actually.

[00:26:47] Yeah.

[00:26:48] You know, our benchmark price is like in the sevens.

[00:26:51] And these first time home buyers are typically buying stuff like under $500,000, I would say.

[00:26:58] Unless it's a strong dual income and they're a first time home buyer, then you'll see obviously higher.

[00:27:03] But yeah, I don't suspect it's going to really make a big impact in Calgary.

[00:27:09] Fair enough.

[00:27:10] Awesome.

[00:27:10] Yeah, I appreciate the insight.

[00:27:13] I am going to call next on Jonathan.

[00:27:17] Jonathan, you helped us organize the meetup in the city of Toronto.

[00:27:22] I guess it was a little bit more of a big party than a meetup.

[00:27:26] But tell us how that went and what you're seeing on the ground in Toronto in regards to the CMHC policy.

[00:27:33] Yeah, hey Dan.

[00:27:34] Thanks for that.

[00:27:34] Everyone, Jonathan.

[00:27:36] Working alongside Dan and Nick to host the Toronto meetups.

[00:27:39] And we hosted our first annual Christmas party yesterday.

[00:27:44] It was an awesome room.

[00:27:46] We had about 250 people kind of across all over the GTA.

[00:27:52] We had someone fly in from Manitoba, which was pretty cool.

[00:27:56] And we had a couple people actually drive down from Ottawa.

[00:28:00] So a really good room.

[00:28:03] We had a very wide range of, I guess, professions.

[00:28:08] Some city planners, lawyers, forge brokers, realtors.

[00:28:13] Kind of everything in the real estate market.

[00:28:17] It was a pretty good energy in the room.

[00:28:19] I think one thing that we've seen, at least over the last couple of meetups, is a lot more kind of optimism going into the new year.

[00:28:28] I think there's been a lot more kind of inquiries, people starting to get ready and get their ducks lined up for 2025.

[00:28:36] From some of the brokers and lenders that we have at our meetups, they've gotten a lot more kind of questions and inquiries from the CMHC policy changes.

[00:28:46] From the kind of everyday person on the ground at our meetups.

[00:28:51] And we haven't heard too much about, I guess, the CMHC changes.

[00:28:57] But a lot more kind of positivity going into next year.

[00:29:00] Awesome.

[00:29:01] Thanks, Jonathan.

[00:29:02] Next, we're going to move to Zach Denny in PEI.

[00:29:07] Zach, how was your meetup?

[00:29:08] And are you seeing any impact from this CMHC policy?

[00:29:13] I guess your house price is going to be similar to the Calgary market.

[00:29:16] Maybe less of an impact than some of the more expensive markets.

[00:29:20] Yeah, thanks, Dan.

[00:29:21] I'm Zach Denny.

[00:29:22] I'm an investor and a realtor in Charlottetown at Royal LePage.

[00:29:25] And I run the island meetup here.

[00:29:27] Our meetup, we had an awesome turnout yesterday for the island.

[00:29:31] We had probably around 20 people.

[00:29:33] And the East Coast Property Group hosted us.

[00:29:36] And, yeah, it was a super cool spot with, like, a racing simulator and some old classic cars that they had on display for us.

[00:29:44] So it was a really great time.

[00:29:47] To your question about the CMHC policies, yeah, I would totally agree with you.

[00:29:51] I mean, it's probably too early to tell.

[00:29:54] But I would agree with your perspective.

[00:29:56] Our benchmark price is around $400 with first-time homebuyers typically buying in the, you know, the $3 to $4 and sometimes up to $5 range.

[00:30:05] So we're well below that million-dollar price point that would be impacted by these policies, I think.

[00:30:12] Awesome.

[00:30:13] Yeah, I think it's interesting because it'll probably skew the national average up by pulling up the markets like Toronto and Vancouver and resurrecting some activity there.

[00:30:23] But I guess it probably won't have much impact in some of the lower markets.

[00:30:27] Let's move over to Zach DeJong, Kitchener-Waterloo.

[00:30:32] I guess you were the closest meetup to Toronto where, you know, like outside of the Christmas party catchment zone.

[00:30:38] So I'm curious, how was your meetup?

[00:30:40] And are you seeing, I mean, Kitchener-Waterloo is kind of within that $1 million starter price.

[00:30:46] Are you seeing any impact on the CMHC side of things?

[00:30:48] Hey, everyone. Zach DeJong here with Mortgage Center KW.

[00:30:52] I'm a mortgage agent in the Kitchener-Waterloo region.

[00:30:55] So I host the Kitchener-Waterloo meetup group.

[00:30:58] Last night was actually a pretty good turnout for December.

[00:31:01] And for, you know, quite a few people did go from, you know, our area and kind of Cambridge area as well to the Toronto meetup as well.

[00:31:11] But we did have a good turnout of, you know, probably 30, 35 people showed up and we still did our thing and had some fun.

[00:31:19] Some good questions.

[00:31:20] We had some property managers out there sharing some knowledge that actually quite a few people were asking questions to, you know, avoid tenant issues and things like that that they were personally running into.

[00:31:33] As for the market in our area, I mean, we've seen an increase in purchasing for sure, at least at my office and with my clients.

[00:31:40] Now, with that $1.5 million threshold, we have had that conversation with a few of them.

[00:31:47] But again, a lot of our first-time homebuyers are still not looking to take on that big of a purchase to start.

[00:31:56] I mean, I have worked with a couple of them that are interested, but they still have that 20% down kind of mark.

[00:32:03] So I guess the whole insured product won't really fit for them.

[00:32:07] I mean, I could see it having an impact in the spring when our market kind of picks up a little bit and potentially provide, like Dan mentioned, that opportunity to those types of houses, to the people that might be sitting on the sideline or looking to purchase potentially like a multi-generational type property and have their parents move in with them.

[00:32:27] So that opportunity is certainly going to be there with something like this product.

[00:32:33] Yeah. Interesting insight.

[00:32:35] I've always wondered if the income cap ends up being really the big limit for people anyways, where they're not going to have the ability to go much higher than that million dollars because they're limited by income anyways.

[00:32:52] Serge in Ottawa, how was your meetup?

[00:32:55] And are you seeing anything as a result of the CMHC changes?

[00:33:00] Yeah. Thanks, Dan. Serge Papineau, realtor in Ottawa, host of the Ottawa meetup.

[00:33:05] Meetup was good.

[00:33:06] Yesterday we had to move the location last minute because we got double booked with the Christmas party at our usual spot.

[00:33:12] So we still ended up getting about 15 people out and had a really good mix.

[00:33:17] We had a Tarion builder who's done some really impressive stuff in Ottawa, a couple of mortgage brokers.

[00:33:22] We had some smaller investors and then a lot of people, of course, who were just looking to get into it, looking for information.

[00:33:29] So a lot of really good conversations, great group as always.

[00:33:33] And as far as the CMHC's impacts, I echo what a lot of the other hosts have said.

[00:33:41] We haven't really felt it much in Ottawa.

[00:33:44] Ottawa, our benchmark price here for single family is about 720K.

[00:33:49] And that gets you a pretty nice house in Ottawa.

[00:33:52] So and we are kind of a conservative city.

[00:33:54] So I think even the people that could stretch and go into that one, you know, 1.5 million range, just there's just not a lot of appetite for it here.

[00:34:03] People like to keep the payments a little lower.

[00:34:04] Yeah, look, I can.

[00:34:06] It's nice to hear that we're seeing some fiscal restraint on Canadians when offered a new opportunity to lever up and bro down.

[00:34:15] So, you know, it's interesting because the Bank of Canada actually observed like that they're seeing an increase in housing market activity, but not an increase in house prices.

[00:34:26] Right.

[00:34:26] And that's like really the target for them is they don't want to see runaway house prices.

[00:34:31] They don't want to see things getting stupid again.

[00:34:34] They don't want to see it becoming inflationary, but we do want to see more transactions, right?

[00:34:39] More residential investment, more growth in GDP.

[00:34:41] And so maybe what you're describing is probably like the target and potentially the best policy outcome.

[00:34:46] Could be.

[00:34:47] Yeah.

[00:34:47] Let's move over to Winnipeg where we have Dawson.

[00:34:51] Obviously, I would say I think our maybe our least expensive first time homebuyer market on the call.

[00:34:58] So curious to see what's happening there.

[00:34:59] But how did the meetup go?

[00:35:01] Because I know you have a young crowd, too.

[00:35:02] So you probably have a lot of people who would be in that first time buyer, first time investor category.

[00:35:07] Yeah.

[00:35:08] So how was the meetup and what's going on with the CMHC policy out there?

[00:35:12] Yeah.

[00:35:13] So like Dan said, I'm Dawson Alexander.

[00:35:15] I'm a host here in Winnipeg, also a real estate agent.

[00:35:18] Last night was decent.

[00:35:19] We got quite the storm yesterday and over the weekend.

[00:35:22] So there was a lot of snow.

[00:35:23] So I wasn't expecting many people, to be honest, even while I was driving there.

[00:35:28] I was like, what what am I doing?

[00:35:29] I was like, I should turn around.

[00:35:30] But I think I sat there for 10 minutes and I was like, it's just going to be me, myself and I for this event.

[00:35:36] But I think we had probably about roughly 22 people still show up and have a good time.

[00:35:42] So that was good, at least.

[00:35:44] No, it was good.

[00:35:44] Last night kind of it was weird.

[00:35:47] A little bit of an older crowd for the first time.

[00:35:49] Not too much, but there was about probably about eight seasoned people there that either owned an apartment block or owned a ton of multifamily kind of buildings, stuff like that.

[00:36:00] But so a little bit of a different demographic than the rest.

[00:36:04] But yeah, it was good.

[00:36:05] Had some other real estate agents, some carpenters, some quite a few flippers.

[00:36:12] Yeah.

[00:36:12] And then, I mean, like the prices here are crazy.

[00:36:15] I don't think that CMHC thing is going to bother us at all.

[00:36:18] Yeah.

[00:36:19] Like I think right now there's maybe, I don't know, 12 properties listed in Winnipeg that are over even a million five.

[00:36:26] Right.

[00:36:26] Yeah.

[00:36:27] Your first time home buyer price is, well, it depends.

[00:36:31] Like our benchmark's probably 360, I'd say.

[00:36:34] But I mean, first time home buyer, I'm usually within that 200 to 250 range for the most part.

[00:36:39] So yeah, I don't think that's going to be an issue at all here.

[00:36:44] Awesome.

[00:36:45] So let's jump over to James in Vancouver, where I would expect that you're at least hearing of this, you know, people thinking about this as an acquisition tool, maybe heading into the spring market.

[00:37:03] But given your first time buyers, you probably don't even have them or they're buying maybe a condo.

[00:37:09] Right.

[00:37:09] If anything.

[00:37:10] So talk to me a little bit about your market and then, or say your meetup and then the potential impact of the CMHC thing on your market.

[00:37:17] Yeah.

[00:37:18] Thanks, Stan.

[00:37:18] Gene Denison here from Royal LePage, realtor in the lower mainland hosting the Vancouver meetup.

[00:37:23] Had a great meetup last night at a quick little location change.

[00:37:26] And unfortunately, sorry for anybody that caused inconvenience to that.

[00:37:29] We're, I'm not seeing too much in terms of people planning on using it, but I think given my market, you know, specifically where I live, Surrey, you know, it's a pretty Indo-Canadian market.

[00:37:40] Uh, there's usually pretty familiar with, uh, them putting multiple people on titles.

[00:37:46] And so I think that's certainly going to change a little bit of whatever market activity going forward with, with those types of buyers, um, putting more people on title, um, being able to afford a little bit more with a lower down payment, but, uh, also talking with some builders in terms of building product.

[00:38:02] That will also kind of still meet that, um, you know, in between the one to 1.5 range, trying to do that versus trying to build something a little bit bigger, uh, duplexes more likely in the 1.1, 1 to 1.5 range.

[00:38:16] And so trying to hit that mark and capture that market, you know, hopefully getting a little bit more pool of buyers where if you're above 1.5, then of course you have to have that much bigger down payment.

[00:38:25] So, yeah, let's, let's stay in BC here and we'll jump to Alex up in, uh, Langley and Fraser Valley.

[00:38:33] How was your meetup?

[00:38:34] And, uh, and, and are you, I know you're in the mortgage space.

[00:38:37] Are you seeing anything in regards to the CMHC change?

[00:38:40] Yeah.

[00:38:41] So our first meetup is actually January.

[00:38:42] So we didn't actually do it yet, but, but in spirit, it was great.

[00:38:46] In spirit.

[00:38:47] It was beautiful.

[00:38:48] We're yeah.

[00:38:49] Such positive vibes here at the sun out.

[00:38:50] Yeah.

[00:38:51] I'm Alex McFadden, otherwise known as the mortgage pug on Instagram.

[00:38:54] And, um, as far as market's concerned, I've been nonstop for the last 45 days.

[00:39:00] It's been, it's been screaming, um, and leading up to the new year.

[00:39:03] I don't anticipate that to stop.

[00:39:05] We had a little bit of a law the last three days, but that always happens before every BOC announcement.

[00:39:09] Every single time it kind of goes a little quieter and then it pops off my phone's like, it's been buzzing like crazy all morning here.

[00:39:16] Um, as far as the CMHC rules, the biggest thing is what I mentioned in the group there.

[00:39:19] I probably got seven or eight clients stacked right now.

[00:39:22] I'm not there waiting for December 15th to do that.

[00:39:24] Um, the $1.5 million CMHC.

[00:39:26] And most of them are doing the, uh, the move up with family or friends.

[00:39:30] Uh, we've been seeing first time buyers, uh, seeing mostly more mature buyers that are doing the one to $1.5 million range.

[00:39:38] And, uh, countless people waiting for the 30 year amortization, primarily because of the payments more than the qualification.

[00:39:44] That's been a big thing.

[00:39:46] Um, but as you know, like, I think the biggest impact here is going to ultimately end up being, uh, the market moving up on the low end.

[00:39:52] Uh, as it relates to the 30 year amortization.

[00:39:55] Meaning I think a lot of the entry level product, which James can speak to this because I think he's in the Valley or somewhere in the Vancouver area.

[00:40:01] Like there's just very little product for the average single person or, or even, you know, uh, lower income couple to buy.

[00:40:09] So anything on that sub $500,000 price points just going to end up shooting up, I think in the first three months of the year.

[00:40:14] The only question I have is whether or not it's sustainable because no matter how many thousands of times we see it, people still don't understand the fact that fixed rates don't go down when the BLC goes down.

[00:40:23] So it'll be a fun day explaining that to 3000 people.

[00:40:26] Yeah, I think, um, you know, it, it's crazy because I always like talk about CMHC policy as if it's exclusive for CMHC or for a first time buyers, but like you made it, you make a good point, right?

[00:40:36] Where it's all owner occupied buyers.

[00:40:38] It does kind of sadden me to think that, you know, your step up buyer doesn't have enough equity to like that, to, to even necessitate this policy, right?

[00:40:47] Like that somebody buying a, another home would need a, to, to get a high leverage or sorry, high ratio, higher, higher loan to value mortgage and an insured mortgage in order to get that, you know, one to 1.5 product.

[00:41:00] Um, but I guess that's the reality in some of those markets, especially the lower mainland and the GTA, right?

[00:41:04] Where, I mean, people just want to own homes and they're going to do so by any means necessary.

[00:41:09] And, and the, and the government just gave them, uh, the means necessary.

[00:41:14] Yeah.

[00:41:14] Sorry, go ahead.

[00:41:14] If you want, if you want to say something.

[00:41:16] I'm going to jump to Mike.

[00:41:17] I think at the end of the day, it's just probably what most people would see.

[00:41:21] And you're probably going to see it in the Toronto area as well.

[00:41:23] It's, it's just the, the mature people and the combination of people that are trying to make that eventual move up.

[00:41:28] You can't buy a detached home or a townhouse in Vancouver or outside of Vancouver for less than a million bucks.

[00:41:33] So people will be taking advantage of that in those cities and communities and finding creative ways to do it.

[00:41:37] Yeah, for sure.

[00:41:39] Mike, I know you, uh, you joined us at the Toronto holiday party.

[00:41:44] Any thoughts and, and I guess any thoughts on, uh, the CMHC stuff?

[00:41:47] Uh, I know you work in the contracting side as well.

[00:41:49] So like, um, curious if you're seeing any, any changes as a result of, um, ahead of the CMHC and also with, uh, potentially the second secondary suite, the increase in the secondary suite loan program.

[00:42:04] Cause I know you're doing some, some ADU work and there's new policy allowing for people to refi out on, uh, on, on 80, uh, 80U builds coming in the new year as well.

[00:42:13] So, uh, yeah.

[00:42:15] Um, yeah, Mike here, uh, attended the, uh, Christmas party.

[00:42:19] Great, uh, event guys.

[00:42:20] And, uh, thanks for putting that on.

[00:42:21] It was great to see all the people and everything like that there.

[00:42:24] Um, to address the CMHC stuff, uh, actually more recently, I've been dealing with people in multiplexing.

[00:42:31] So, uh, I know that's not necessarily a brand new program, but I've been seeing some interest there as far as, uh, CMHC programs for the million and a half dollar program, a first time home buyer.

[00:42:43] To be honest, I don't really deal a whole lot with those types of people.

[00:42:46] So I wouldn't be able to speak knowledgeably in terms of like market demand for that.

[00:42:52] Although I don't think in my neighborhoods here in Vaughn, uh, you can't really get a whole lot of house for a million and a half dollars if you're looking for something newer.

[00:42:59] Um, so I'm not expecting a big increase there, uh, just generally speaking.

[00:43:03] But, uh, from the contracting side, there's definitely interest, uh, again, people, they still have to qualify, uh, with some of their own funds and things like that.

[00:43:12] So it's mostly just trying to convince them that the cash flow will work.

[00:43:15] Um, and for people that are in agreeance on that, uh, you know, they should be picking up a bit.

[00:43:21] And just in terms of general construction though, I think there is a little bit more interest now, uh, like a point that I brought up before.

[00:43:27] I think that's more of a function of people saying, well, I can't afford to move, uh, but perhaps I have just enough equity to upgrade.

[00:43:34] You know, my first floor or my second floor or whatever it is you're trying to accomplish.

[00:43:38] Uh, so there, there is a pickup I've noticed in that.

[00:43:41] So I guess in terms of the direct impact of the brand new CMHC stuff, I'll let some of the others on the call just kind of have a point of their sentiments.

[00:43:48] Uh, not seeing a huge impact.

[00:43:50] I'm not particularly expecting to see big impacts on my work, but yeah, I think, uh, as far as CMHC goes, uh, I'm liking the multi-collecting options with MLI select so far.

[00:44:00] Yeah.

[00:44:01] Thanks, Mike.

[00:44:01] Let's jump over to Sean and Peterborough.

[00:44:03] Sean, how was, uh, how was the meetup?

[00:44:04] And are you seeing any, uh, I know you're, I guess one of the more affordable markets within the, uh, within a golf swing of, uh, of downtown Toronto.

[00:44:12] The, um, has the CMHC policy given any more, uh, push into the market?

[00:44:20] No, like haven't really, to be honest, I haven't heard anybody ask me about it in Peterborough.

[00:44:25] So like the month of November just closed, um, average price in the city of Peterborough is about $582,000.

[00:44:33] So, you know, properties that get up over a mill, mill and a half, like we get into the recreational, like waterfront type market, like in the Kortha lakes.

[00:44:41] Um, so I haven't heard anybody mention it to me, but I will say our meetup was great.

[00:44:47] It's an exciting time for first time home buyers right now in the Peterborough area.

[00:44:52] Um, I've personally had the chance to work with a few in the past, like 30 to 60 days.

[00:44:58] And, um, like we've been able to scoop up properties under 500 here in Peterborough.

[00:45:03] So, and, and funny story last night, there was this one gentleman who, um, attended our event, uh, found us on event, right?

[00:45:10] Nobody knew who he was.

[00:45:11] He showed up at a left field and nobody could pin how he, how, how he got there.

[00:45:16] But, you know, we got to know him and he was looking to purchase his first, uh, house and, and do some house hacking.

[00:45:22] And by the end of the event, we had four or five pretty experienced guys and gals like circled around him, uh, giving them the inside scoop on how not to make mistakes.

[00:45:33] And, uh, by the end of the night, he was hugging us.

[00:45:35] So it was, uh, it was a merry event.

[00:45:38] It was, it was a good event.

[00:45:39] Good event.

[00:45:40] Good.

[00:45:41] Yeah, man.

[00:45:42] It's those, uh, it's those moments that we do this for, right?

[00:45:45] Like, you know, for one person, you potentially saved them, you know, tens of thousands of dollars.

[00:45:51] Like that, that's the value that right there of going to these things, right?

[00:45:56] It's getting exposure to people who have a lifetime of experience.

[00:45:58] You get combined experience of, you know, a hundred plus years in these, some of these rooms.

[00:46:02] So it's good, man.

[00:46:04] Absolutely.

[00:46:04] I was telling him I've lost money, so you don't have to.

[00:46:07] Yeah.

[00:46:07] This is great.

[00:46:08] Yeah.

[00:46:08] It was, it was a great event.

[00:46:10] It looked like you guys had a great party in Toronto too.

[00:46:12] So, yeah.

[00:46:13] Well, we're, we're happy to, to roll in the Kitchener, Waterloo and Peterborough next year.

[00:46:18] If, uh, if you guys want to make that happen, just let us know.

[00:46:20] Maybe we'll get some party buses going or something.

[00:46:23] That's good.

[00:46:24] LJ in, uh, in Montreal.

[00:46:26] Hey, how's your meetup?

[00:46:28] And, uh, and, and are you seeing any, um, impact in regards?

[00:46:32] To the, um, to the CMHC changes in Montreal?

[00:46:37] Yeah.

[00:46:37] So I'm LJ Ginega with LJ Realty's here in Montreal and Plex Doctor Property Managements.

[00:46:41] We had a great turnout yesterday.

[00:46:43] We had about 17 people, a couple of new faces, a couple of returning faces and a nice mix

[00:46:47] of people, people who are looking to get started.

[00:46:49] A couple of really young wholesalers.

[00:46:50] We had a 17 year old at the meetup, which was really impressive to me.

[00:46:53] Who was wanting to get into wholesaling and was already starting to work on that side

[00:46:56] of things to somebody in the process of building a 30 unit building as well.

[00:47:00] Right.

[00:47:00] So kind of the whole gamut of people, which was cool to exchange ideas with, um, in terms

[00:47:04] of how this CMHC policy is going to affect Montreal as a whole.

[00:47:08] I think it's going to affect people.

[00:47:09] You mentioned that it's kind of sad that we're not going to be able to have the equity necessary,

[00:47:13] but I think people are using it almost as a financial tool to potentially buy a duplex,

[00:47:17] possibly use a product like this and get into a larger property that they're eventually

[00:47:21] going to keep as an investment longer term and anchor it more so on that angle, as opposed

[00:47:25] to just going minimum down payment on a really expensive purchase price.

[00:47:28] In Montreal, we have a bit of the, we can still buy things in the six, $700,000 range.

[00:47:32] So you don't have to jump to that price point, but I do think people are looking to see, Hey,

[00:47:35] can we keep some of our capital to invest in other things at the same time and diversify

[00:47:39] while utilizing this problem, this program for us in the future, more so than other things.

[00:47:43] Awesome.

[00:47:44] Excellent insight.

[00:47:45] Thanks, LJ.

[00:47:46] Cam out of Moncton, I guess, uh, again, probably a lower priced market, uh, outside of

[00:47:51] sort of the CMHC, uh, where the CMHC cutoff would have an impact, but how was your, uh,

[00:47:57] how was your meetup?

[00:47:58] And, um, and are you hearing any rumblings of this having an impact in your market?

[00:48:01] Yeah.

[00:48:01] Thanks Dan.

[00:48:02] The meetups have had some small turnouts.

[00:48:04] Just remind everybody we meet 6 PM second Tuesday of every month.

[00:48:08] You go on house hub city.

[00:48:09] It is free and you can bring a friend.

[00:48:12] I know I get a lot of questions through social, if they can, you know, show up and if there's

[00:48:16] a charge, it's free show up.

[00:48:18] Attendance has been small, but investing in the overall sentiment in the greater Moncton

[00:48:23] area has been weak in the last couple of months.

[00:48:26] So I encourage anybody who's interested, wants to learn, wants to grow their investment mindset

[00:48:30] to pop over.

[00:48:31] We actually had Ryan who runs the Halifax meetup in town.

[00:48:35] Uh, so he was there.

[00:48:36] We had some great conversation with the folks that were there.

[00:48:38] We're looking forward to the new year in terms of CMHC.

[00:48:41] No, similar to other comments that have been made.

[00:48:43] Our price point for first time buyers is typically sub 300,000.

[00:48:48] So this really is not impactful to buyers around here.

[00:48:51] Wild.

[00:48:51] I didn't, I didn't realize that there, they were, uh, that the prices were that low.

[00:48:56] They're making me, making me feel like I might have to be, uh, revisiting the investment

[00:49:01] thesis in the Moncton market actually and hop on.

[00:49:03] I mean, I could spam you.

[00:49:05] Uh, yeah, you know, spam's coming your way.

[00:49:06] Yeah.

[00:49:07] Yeah, for sure.

[00:49:08] Well, it looks like we had Josh hop on here.

[00:49:10] Maybe we'll, uh, we'll, we'll wrap it up and let, and let Josh, uh, sing our praises

[00:49:15] for the, for the, the party last night.

[00:49:18] And, uh, Josh, how was it?

[00:49:19] And, uh, and, and are, are you seeing among clients that the question for today, are you

[00:49:24] seeing any impact or any thought of impact around the CMHC increase from one to 1.5 million

[00:49:30] in, in, in that, um, making people feel like they want to spend maybe more than a million

[00:49:37] bucks in the GTA or whatever it is?

[00:49:40] Sure.

[00:49:40] Yeah.

[00:49:40] Great party last night, guys.

[00:49:41] I think that when you have, um, you know, a group of people who aren't necessarily just

[00:49:46] bankers or aren't necessarily just real estate investors, we get people in the room or from

[00:49:51] all aspects of life.

[00:49:52] It's, it's cool to have, you know, that dynamic and group of people together.

[00:49:56] It's not very often it happens in our industry.

[00:49:59] So kudos to you.

[00:50:00] The place was filled.

[00:50:01] It was an awesome time.

[00:50:02] Benny was sick.

[00:50:03] You know, I think everybody had a, had a great time watching your growth is unreal.

[00:50:07] Uh, next year is going to be awesome.

[00:50:08] That being said, in regards to the CMHC change rule for, you know, a million to 1.5, I very

[00:50:15] rarely see anybody who can even qualify for a million dollars of debt.

[00:50:18] You know, I don't see fundamentally people looking to take on more than that.

[00:50:25] And if you do have the income to qualify for it, like most people don't have the appetite

[00:50:30] of stomach to take on at these rates right now.

[00:50:32] I don't think it's going to be majorly impactful.

[00:50:34] Um, in a way, I think that a lot of the pressure that was coming over the last two, three

[00:50:38] years from Sajin and through CMHC to the federal government to push this through was

[00:50:43] when affordability was at an all time high when people could actually, you know, make

[00:50:47] dollars, um, stretch and, you know, I lower interest rates.

[00:50:50] I honestly don't, I don't think it's, uh, going to make a major impact and we aren't

[00:50:53] seeing any applications, uh, insured applications that are trying to even push that over that

[00:50:58] million dollar threshold.

[00:51:00] Interesting.

[00:51:01] Great insight.

[00:51:02] Yeah.

[00:51:02] I was always, I always thought the, the income cap would be really the killer until rates

[00:51:07] come down.

[00:51:07] And, and even then, I mean, you're the impact of that is limited to the downside because

[00:51:12] your, your stress tests are like the way you only have 50, 50 bips more.

[00:51:16] We, this, we can go down before we hit that.

[00:51:18] You're stuck at 5% stress test.

[00:51:20] Right.

[00:51:20] So I've, I've, I've said for like a long time, it is the biggest impact is going to be if

[00:51:25] we see some sort of reversal in the, the, um, the stress test.

[00:51:28] I think, um, I, I don't know if I see Routledge ever doing that, but I'm surprised there hasn't

[00:51:33] been more political pressure on him.

[00:51:34] And I think, I think, uh, Osvi's the superintendent gets a seven year term, right?

[00:51:39] So if, if he's, he's attached to that thing, which it seems he is, it might not be going

[00:51:44] anywhere.

[00:51:45] Yeah.

[00:51:45] I mean, liquidity is also gone on the market.

[00:51:46] Like there, you know, you don't have the $400,000 down payments.

[00:51:50] People were selling their houses, taking the equity, buying other houses and rolling it

[00:51:53] into bigger houses.

[00:51:54] That's not happening anymore.

[00:51:56] You know, values are, values are down.

[00:51:58] People aren't selling.

[00:51:59] Uh, they have, they're probably not selling for one or two reasons.

[00:52:02] They have phenomenal rate or, you know, the, the, the value was significantly down and

[00:52:07] they're not going to be able to upgrade into a better house.

[00:52:09] So yeah.

[00:52:11] Policy, I think it was a more of like a policy thing.

[00:52:13] Like we're doing something then it actually being impactful to the market.

[00:52:16] Yeah.

[00:52:17] No, that's an excellent point.

[00:52:18] I know Alex was mentioning, um, in BC, like you're seeing step-up buyers using it, which

[00:52:22] is interesting because so like, even the people who, who have that lack of liquidity, but

[00:52:26] do want to climb the ladder a little bit, they have some equity they can pull from their

[00:52:29] existing house.

[00:52:29] They still need to go into that high loan to value product to be able to get into that one

[00:52:34] to one, 1.5.

[00:52:35] So it's almost more of like a combined household or second time buyer owner occupied product

[00:52:40] than it is for a first time buyer product.

[00:52:43] Fascinating.

[00:52:44] Um, I actually learned a lot from this group on the call today, so I really appreciate

[00:52:47] it.

[00:52:47] I think, uh, we'll wrap it up there.

[00:52:50] Big, uh, big shout out to all of our meetup hosts.

[00:52:52] Uh, we absolutely crushed it this year.

[00:52:54] The last meetup of the year.

[00:52:56] Let's absolutely hit it strong in January.

[00:52:59] I know we're going to get a ton of new listeners in the new year, new me.

[00:53:02] And so if you're listening to this show and you just heard from the host, these are incredibly

[00:53:07] qualified people coast to coast that are there to serve you.

[00:53:11] They come out, they give their time.

[00:53:12] Uh, they put together rooms full of people like the one that Sean described, where you

[00:53:16] can literally have hundreds of years of combined expertise helping you to, to make informed

[00:53:23] decisions in the real estate space.

[00:53:25] So get out there.

[00:53:26] Like if that's, if you're looking for the first step to being, to advancing your career

[00:53:30] as a real estate investor, and that doesn't mean you, you know, people starting from zero,

[00:53:34] if you're a super experienced investor, you can still advance your career as an investor.

[00:53:37] Right.

[00:53:38] And one of the best ways to do that.

[00:53:39] And the easiest way that I would say to do that is to get out to an event like this

[00:53:44] doesn't have to be ours.

[00:53:45] I would prefer it.

[00:53:45] It was, but, um, you know, get out to an event like this and surround yourself with

[00:53:50] like-minded people and with people who are going to, going to help you level up and hold

[00:53:54] you accountable to leveling up.

[00:53:55] So that's all I got.

[00:53:56] Thank you guys so much for a great year and we'll see you next year.

[00:54:00] Looking forward to it.

[00:54:02] The content of this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only.

[00:54:06] It is not intended as financial, legal, or investment advice.

[00:54:09] Always consult a qualified professional for advice tailored to your unique circumstances.

[00:54:14] The views expressed are those of the hosts and guests and do not necessarily reflect

[00:54:19] the opinions of affiliated organizations.

[00:54:21] Daniel Foch is a real estate broker licensed with Valerie Real Estate Inc.

[00:54:26] Website is Valerie.ca, V-A-L-E-R-Y.ca.

[00:54:30] And a member of the Canadian Real Estate Association, the Ontario Real Estate Association, and the Toronto

[00:54:36] Real Estate Board.

[00:54:37] Nick Hill is a mortgage agent and partner at OWL.

[00:54:41] Mortgage license number 10317.

[00:54:45] Agent license M21004037.

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