In this episode of Canadian Macro, Simon and Dan break down a busy week for inflation, trade, bonds, currencies and commodities.
They start with the latest Canadian CPI report, including the renewed pressure from gasoline, food and diesel prices, and why the headline inflation number may not fully capture what households are actually feeling.
They also discuss the early details of a potential U.S.-Canada trade deal, including tariffs on autos, steel and aluminum, the push to reopen Canadian markets to U.S. alcohol, and whether Keystone XL could re-enter the conversation.
The main focus of the episode is the U.S. bond market. Simon and Dan explain why the U.S. Treasury is increasing buybacks of older Treasury bonds, what that could mean for long-term yields, and why recent moves involving Japan, the yen, and the FIMA repo facility suggest policymakers may be getting more nervous about Treasury market stability.
They also discuss why gold and Bitcoin have rallied, what it could say about confidence in government bonds and fiat currencies, and why rising U.S. yields matter directly for Canada, mortgage rates, the loonie and the Bank of Canada.
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