In this news-style episode, Simon and Dan break down Citrini Researchâs The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisisâa ânote from the futureâ dated June 30, 2028 that frames the most bullish AI adoption path as a surprisingly bearish outcome for the real economy. They walk through the core feedback loop: companies deploy AI to boost productivity and margins, layoffs rise (especially in white-collar roles), consumer spending weakens, and the cycle reinforces itselfâcreating what the piece calls âghost GDP,â where productivity climbs but wages and demand donât keep up.
From there, the duo digs into the sectors Citrini argues get hit first and hardest: SaaS (seat contraction + customers using AI as renewal leverage), the intermediation layer (agents shopping travel, subscriptions, insurance, delivery, and more), and even payment rails as AI agents chase lower-cost settlement via stablecoins. They also connect the dots to private credit and insurance flywheelsâwhere mark-to-model portfolios can look stable until forced selling and capital needs expose stressâand what rising unemployment could mean for housing in once âprimeâ white-collar markets.
Tickers discussed: V, MA, AXP, DFS, PYPL, AMZN, WMT, EXPE, UBER, DASH, SHOP, GOOGL, PLTR, TRI, OWL, APO, BN, KKR, CRM, ADBE, AIG
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