Our 2025 Bold Predictions

[00:00:01] This is the Canadian Investor, where you take control of your own portfolio and gain the confidence you need to succeed in the markets. Hosted by Braden Dennis and Simon Belanger

[00:00:14] The Canadian Investor Podcast. Happy Holidays! It is our annual Bold Predictions episode, looking at 2025. We've got the three amigos. Again, it is myself, Simon,

[00:00:31] and Dan Kent here doing the 2025 Bold Predictions episode. First off, off the top, before, Simon, you do a review of our

[00:00:42] swings and misses in 2024. None of this is advice. These are fun predictions. Don't make any investment

[00:00:52] decisions on anything discussed on this podcast and certainly not on some form of bold speculation.

[00:00:59] These are meant to be fun and not necessarily where we are putting our own capital at risk. So have that in mind,

[00:01:06] listening to the show. Always do your own work and never borrow our conviction. Mr. Belanger,

[00:01:13] how did we do last year? Let's get a summary. Yeah, so let's do it. So I'll start off with Dan. So Dan had

[00:01:20] two predictions here. So the first one was Canadian banks will break a long trend and continue to

[00:01:27] underperform in 2024. So I think you had mentioned the real estate assets would negatively weigh on the

[00:01:35] banks or real estate loans. You mentioned that more on the index level. Obviously, there's different banks

[00:01:41] in Canada. But I don't think that came true because the banks actually performed very well, right, Dan?

[00:01:47] Yeah, they actually killed it. Dan meant the telcos. That's what he meant. Yeah, exactly. That's a typo.

[00:01:55] No, the banks, there was, you know, for a long time, once the banks had a year of underperformance,

[00:02:03] historically, you know, over the last 20 to 25 years, they've always outperformed the year after.

[00:02:09] And I kind of thought like, if there's any situation where that trend is going to be broken,

[00:02:13] it's probably, you know, in the situation we're at right now in the Canadian economy. And

[00:02:19] I didn't even think this was too bold when I said it, but they ended up absolutely killing it. And for

[00:02:24] the most part, it was like the complete opposite of what I thought. The Canadian segments of all the

[00:02:28] banks just absolutely killed it. Provision started coming down, deposits, loans still, you know,

[00:02:34] pretty strong. And I think there was actually four. I'm not sure exactly how it closed out with,

[00:02:43] you know, over the latter half of December here, but I'm pretty sure four of the six Canadian banks

[00:02:48] are actually outperforming the S&P 500 this year. Pretty impressive. I mean, I have it for

[00:02:52] joint TCI subscribers here. It's the financials from the TSX 60. Of course, it includes more than

[00:02:59] banks. So take this with a grain of salt, but a total returns year to date, 32%. So it'll include

[00:03:06] things like insurance companies as well, but a pretty, pretty impressive for Canadian banks. Not

[00:03:11] too much more to, uh, to talk about that. Brayden, anything you want to add before we go

[00:03:16] to the second bull prediction from that? No, the only thing I'm adding is usually we do this with two

[00:03:21] guys and we're doing it on the fly here. Mr. Kent, just bring that microphone a little closer to your,

[00:03:26] uh, to your mouth because Simone's a lot louder for me. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Who's next?

[00:03:32] Okay. So I guess I'll just do Dan's second bull prediction and then Brayden, maybe you read mine

[00:03:38] and Dan can finish with reading yours. So, so for Dan's second, small caps will outperform large caps

[00:03:46] in large part because of aggressive rate cuts. So the Russell 2000 will double the returns of the

[00:03:51] large caps in 2024. And that is incorrect. Big miss. Yeah. I think it ended up returning half

[00:03:59] of the S&P 500. Yeah. I think that's what I, I, when I looked and that was about it. I mean,

[00:04:04] I think small caps got hit pretty hard, um, uh, earlier this week with, uh, with the fed, you know,

[00:04:10] the basically, uh, the pause or whatever you want to call it a slower, slower, um, rate decrease

[00:04:17] in the feds fund rate. So, um, yeah, not too much to add there. Anything else, Dan, you want to add on

[00:04:22] this one? Just take the loss. That was just a big loss. Yeah. Okay. The one, the one benefit is

[00:04:27] comment. Yeah. No comment. The one thing I will say is I own, you know, quite a few small caps that

[00:04:32] did pretty damn good this year. So I'm still happy. Nice. Yeah. And I will vouch for Dan. I know he's

[00:04:38] has a lot of small caps and I think there's a lot of potential good investment in small caps,

[00:04:44] but I think you have to pick the companies you want to invest in the index. I think was a bit more

[00:04:50] difficult, um, in terms of just how broad it is and what it captures. It'll capture a lot of small

[00:04:56] caps that are not that great in terms of companies. It wouldn't be the Canadian investor podcast,

[00:05:01] bold predictions without Simone having a Bitcoin prediction in there. You had JP Morgan will launch

[00:05:08] a Bitcoin ETF in 2024. Uh, did every other asset manager except JP Morgan launch one?

[00:05:16] Pretty much. Yeah. That's, um, I mean, I can't recall how many there are in terms of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

[00:05:23] Now, I think there's about 10 in the U S if not more, there's been a couple more that have been added.

[00:05:28] The one thing that they, they are participating in it, but, uh, what they are doing is they are an

[00:05:34] authorized participant for black rocks, Bitcoin trust. Uh, so the Bitcoin ETF from rack rock, uh,

[00:05:40] that means that they are involved in the redemption and creation process of shares for the ETF. So

[00:05:46] simply put in ensures that the ETF shares trade in line with their net asset value or nav. But again,

[00:05:52] I think that's a loss. It was not, um, what I was predicting. So, uh, we'll see maybe in 2025.

[00:05:57] Yeah. And like for the listeners context, it's, there's no point in us calling bold predictions,

[00:06:04] like mediumly lukewarm, hot takes predictions with high batting average. Like that's, that's not the

[00:06:11] point here. You had here a bank of Canada cuts the overnight rate by 150 bips in the year of 2024.

[00:06:19] And the TSX will have a 20% plus total return.

[00:06:23] Yeah. I almost had that one. I should have said more than 150 basis point. Cause then, uh, I would

[00:06:29] have got it. It was 175 and ended up being with the more, the latest, uh, 50 basis point from the

[00:06:35] bank of Canada. However, I consider that a win that's this is a, this is a, this is a hundred

[00:06:41] percent in the wind column in my, okay. And then, uh, you know, as long as the TSX cooperates for the

[00:06:46] next few days, uh, I'll be above 20%, uh, for the returns there. So, um, yeah, so that would be a

[00:06:53] win. No, yeah. This is, this is puck in the net for, for sure. Okay. I got the last one. Simone,

[00:06:58] you put these together in terms of the summary. So why don't you get this out here? Okay. Dan,

[00:07:04] did you want to do a Braden's or, uh, want me to do it? Well, you could cover soft choice because

[00:07:08] I don't really know them that much, but the, uh, I don't know them that much either. Yeah. That was

[00:07:12] a reaction last year. So, uh, soft choice, which is more of a kind of traditional software

[00:07:22] kind of computer company. Yeah. They sell hardware and services and services. There you go. So, um,

[00:07:30] you said they would get acquired in 2024. They were not acquired all of ever. The head has performed

[00:07:37] quite well. When I did these notes, maybe, uh, three, four days ago, it was up 84% for

[00:07:42] 2024. So it's performed really well, but you did, I will give you that is to be fair. You had more

[00:07:48] conviction that they would no longer be public in, uh, I think by the end of 2025, I think you had a

[00:07:55] longer timeframe, but of course it was for 2024 because of the bull prediction. So that one was

[00:08:00] wrong, but, uh, Hey, if someone bought the stock, they did pretty well this year.

[00:08:04] Well, I have a weirdly good track record with predicting buyouts of certain TSX companies.

[00:08:12] On the podcast. And I was, I'm, I'm still, I'm still betting on this by the way, like it didn't

[00:08:19] happen in the calendar year. I did some math. So in the last 12 months, they have returned $200

[00:08:28] million to shareholders via mostly a special dividend. In March, they declared a $4 per common

[00:08:37] share dividend to be paid on April 12th. By the way, at that time in March, when this was announced,

[00:08:43] it was a $17 stock. So that is a huge special div. They're buying back a lot of the stock.

[00:08:51] There is some, uh, SBC. So the share counts kind of flat, but like this is, uh, the, the,

[00:08:59] the pitch was this company shouldn't be public and it's better private for reasons X, Y, and Z.

[00:09:08] And that graph I'm showing you in the, the special dividend and the, the, you know, basic cash back

[00:09:13] to shareholders looks a lot like a private company vibe. So yeah.

[00:09:20] Yeah. Yellow light. Maybe, I don't know. Maybe I'm just trying to get myself credit.

[00:09:23] Yeah. So correction, I guess they've been hit by the little downturn we're seeing this week, uh,

[00:09:28] with the Fed announcement, but still 76% return, a total return the year to date. So my guess,

[00:09:35] yeah. And big part because of that dividend too, but, uh, Hey, uh, good job for those who, uh,

[00:09:40] listen to the podcast and last year or this year. Cause, uh, they've done pretty good.

[00:09:45] Yeah. That's a big chunky dividend on a $17, $17 a share. I mean, it's at a hell of a year.

[00:09:51] Yeah, exactly. And then the last one here, the U S market more than doubles the TSX in total returns.

[00:09:58] So, uh, not quite, I mean, the U S market, I will give you that as performed better than the,

[00:10:04] and in TSX, depending if you're looking at it on a, on hedge CAD version or what, you know,

[00:10:11] and there's all different kinds of, uh, ETFs. You can measure it. If it's hedged, it won't be as

[00:10:16] good. The returns, if it's on hedge in Canadian dollar, uh, I think it's probably outpaced, uh,

[00:10:21] TSX by like 13, 14%, um, just because the U S dollars performed so well. Um, so I, that one is

[00:10:28] wrong too. I think I, we, I can speak for all three of us. I mean, I, I'm surprised how well the TSX

[00:10:35] has done compared to the S and P 500 this year. Yeah. Ditto. I mean, this is almost correct on a

[00:10:41] NASDAQ basis. Like the NASDAQ is up like 32% this year or something like that. But yeah, I mean,

[00:10:47] I think gold has golden and financials obviously have driven a ton of the TSX. I mean, if energy

[00:10:53] wasn't so bad this year, I bet you it would be up there pretty close to the S and P. Yeah. I am

[00:10:59] surprised as well though. Yeah. Maybe, uh, energy may be doing a better next year. At least it sounds

[00:11:04] like Buffett's betting on it. I think he, uh, he just disclosed that he, uh, bought more of

[00:11:08] Occidental, I think, uh, was it? Yeah. Recently. So, um, we'll see. So, uh, those who will hold the

[00:11:15] oil and gas stocks like me, maybe, uh, 2025 will be better. All right, let's get into 2025. Let's do

[00:11:22] Dan Simone Braden. And the reason Dan, I'm picking you to go first is because we were just talking about

[00:11:29] TSX performance versus us performance and the CAD USD conversion for anyone, you know, getting on a

[00:11:40] plane and going South is, uh, you know, shaking in their boots of the, the trip's going to be a lot

[00:11:47] more expensive. So I think, I think this is a good one to start with today. Yeah. I'm going down

[00:11:51] to Arizona in February and I have already bought my U S dollars. So that shows you, uh, my overall

[00:11:58] outlook on the Canadian dollar, but I mean, not really counting. Like I pretty much predict that

[00:12:04] the Canadian dollar will hit multi-decade lows. And, you know, I wouldn't really be counting the

[00:12:09] very brief stint, the dollar, you know, plummeted during the pandemic because it recovered relatively

[00:12:14] quickly. But I do believe the dollar will get very close to, you know, levels we seen in 2002.

[00:12:20] I was in probably like junior high at that time, borderline like elementary school. I mean, this

[00:12:26] would mark the lowest point in yeah, 23 years. There's a few reasons. I think this, uh, for one

[00:12:32] and one of the main ones, I mean, diverging monetary policy, obviously between the U S and Canada,

[00:12:37] it's causing a wide gap in, you know, the risk-free rates in either country. And with the fed cutting by

[00:12:42] 25 basis points. And although the bank of Canada has kind of mentioned that the jumbo cuts might be over,

[00:12:49] I mean, it's not out of the question, you know, depending on the data that you could see another

[00:12:54] 50 basis point cut in January. I mean, it's, it's far from, you know, guaranteed they're going to slow

[00:12:59] down. This would probably put more pressure on the Canadian dollar. And, uh, it's pretty easy,

[00:13:04] you know, if we see 25 basis points this month and then 50 from Canada later on, I mean, it's not

[00:13:09] hard to see money flowing out of the Canadian dollar and, and into us dollars. Obviously weaker oil

[00:13:15] prices would be the second reason. I mean, we're in an economic recession. Oil is a huge part of our

[00:13:20] economy. Um, our dollar, you know, they, it went on a multi-year slide after 20, 2014 when oil fell out

[00:13:27] and, uh, it dropped quite a bit again, as I mentioned, when COVID hit, uh, the third would not really just

[00:13:33] be a weakening Canadian dollar, but just the overall strength of the U S dollar. So the U S economy is

[00:13:39] outpacing the Canadian economy by a wide margin right now. And that is with, you know, Trump not in office

[00:13:44] yet. And a lot of his pro America policies, I guess, you know, ones that are generally,

[00:13:49] you know, U S dollar bullish have not taken place yet. If he does go through with ramped up domestic

[00:13:54] production tariffs on imported goods, uh, the U S dollar not guaranteed, but should strengthen

[00:14:00] relative to the Canadian dollar. And, um, it also goes without saying the weaker Canadian economy

[00:14:05] ultimately has an impact and, you know, the high levels of government spending, uh, bond yields,

[00:14:10] they're really not following policy rate declines. Um, we just seen, you know, the, the deficit,

[00:14:16] what was it? 50% above what they had expected. So, I mean, I think all these situations are kind of

[00:14:22] the perfect cocktail for, you know, continually weakening Canadian dollar. Simone had wanted

[00:14:27] me to go 63 cents, which would be those lows that we see in like 2000. Yeah, exactly. I mean,

[00:14:34] yeah, I'll go, I'll go 63 cents, which like I, you know, I haven't really looked into this very

[00:14:40] much, but I would imagine that would be the biggest one year loss in a currency in, uh, in

[00:14:45] quite some time to go from the what 69 and a half we are right now to 63. That'd be huge, but

[00:14:51] I do think it could get there. Yeah. And so the reason I'm showing the, um, the DXY chart,

[00:14:58] so for those not familiar, the DXY is just a basket of currencies against the U S dollar.

[00:15:03] Is that yes, uh, the Canadian dollar has been very weak compared to the U S dollar. But what this is

[00:15:09] showing the DXY is it's not only the Canadian dollar. It's a lot, like a lot of currencies

[00:15:16] around the world are actually quite weak against the U S dollar. So the DXY or the dollar index,

[00:15:22] essentially a basket of currency. I've talked about it recently, but if you missed that episode,

[00:15:26] so it's heavily weighted towards the Euro at 58% yen at 14%, the pound sterling,

[00:15:33] at 12% Canadian dollar at 9% and then Swedish, uh, Corona and Swiss franc at around 4% each. So

[00:15:40] this just shows for those listening is that it's significantly up essentially since September. So

[00:15:46] it's not just the Canadian dollar, especially since the Canadian dollar has a relatively small

[00:15:51] weighting in that basket. Uh, so that is something I wanted to show because yes, um,

[00:15:56] I agree with them that it will likely without being at that bull, it will likely be a bad year for the

[00:16:03] Canadian dollar. But I think it's probably a reflection more of the, the strength of the

[00:16:07] U S dollar than necessarily the weakness of the Canadian dollar by itself. Yeah.

[00:16:12] Bullish fin chat. Yeah. Bullish, bullish revenue USD in the door. Canadian expenses. Bullish. Oh man.

[00:16:24] Yeah. That's 63 cents. Yeah. It would be big. I'm like, I'm like looking at our margin profile at 63

[00:16:29] cents. Yeah. And I like, I mean, at the end of the day too, like we've said it, you know, all three of

[00:16:35] us for, you know, some time now, like I think it's important to have some exposure to the U S dollar as

[00:16:41] a Canadian. And especially if you have most of your income, uh, generate in Canadian dollar. That's why

[00:16:46] I hold a lot of my cash in USD and it's been definitely helping my returns this year. Yeah. You

[00:16:52] do your like returns for the year last couple of years holding U S stocks translated to CAD in terms

[00:17:01] of total gain. It's yeah. The numbers are pretty spicy. Well, I mean, back in, in 2021, I used to

[00:17:08] own like XAW, like a huge chunk of my portfolio. And I took all of that and sold it and went to U S when

[00:17:14] it was, I think 82 cents. So I mean, 65 cents would be, that'd be big. I think it's, it's definitely

[00:17:21] possible. That would be a huge drop. Yeah. Yeah. 63 cents with 65, 65 is possible. 63 would be

[00:17:29] massive, massive drop, but we want to go on to number two. Yeah. Let's go. Well, I'll go with

[00:17:35] my first bold prediction and then Brayden and then you can start your third one or your second one.

[00:17:40] So for me, I guess like you mentioned, Brayden, I have to do a Bitcoin prediction. It's almost a

[00:17:45] tradition here. This one is, is pretty bold as well. So I don't know if it'll come true. So the

[00:17:51] price, there's two components to it. The price of Bitcoin will hit at least $200,000 USD and we'll also

[00:17:58] correct 40% at some point next year. Now for this to be true, both of them have to happen.

[00:18:05] Now I'm giving myself a little bit of leeway where, you know, it doesn't have to be one first and then

[00:18:12] the other one. So yes, it could correct early on in the year. Let's say it's at a hundred K and then

[00:18:18] drops to 60 and then reaches 200 by the end of the year. That would be fine or hits 200 and then drops

[00:18:24] 40%. That would be fine as well. It would be pretty wild. But I think the other reason I did

[00:18:30] is just to show people how volatile Bitcoin can be. So as bold as it is, I don't think this is a

[00:18:35] zero probability thing. It can be, there can be some massive moves up, but there's can also be some

[00:18:41] massive moves down. 200 K is just, it's a round number. That's why I choose that. It's, you know,

[00:18:46] it looks good. There's no, yeah. It's like when people ask like, you know, why are people latching

[00:18:51] onto the hundred Bitcoin, a hundred K us it's like, cause we're humans. Yeah. So psychological

[00:18:57] 100 K is a number we can resonate with like, Oh, it hit 97.2 K. Like that's not a headline.

[00:19:06] No, exactly. And so there's some reasons for that. I'll just go over them. Obviously Trump being elected

[00:19:11] and they're constantly saying and appointing people that are pro Bitcoin and pro crypto.

[00:19:18] There's constant talk of a U S Bitcoin reserve, whether that happens or not, we'll have to see.

[00:19:24] They said that they want to keep the Bitcoin that they acquire through law enforcement,

[00:19:30] for example, instead of selling them. So we'll have to see what happens 2025, but that would be

[00:19:35] clearly pretty bullish. There's also other U S states and countries that I've also said,

[00:19:41] that they're looking into getting a Bitcoin reserve. Russia will be one of those country

[00:19:46] as they look to diversify their assets, to look at Bitcoin as a potential reserve, whether it happens

[00:19:53] or not, we'll have to see, but these are all things that would increase demand for it. You'll also see

[00:19:58] in 2025, and this is kind of my bold prediction reasoning, more and more companies allocate part of

[00:20:06] their balance sheet cash to Bitcoin. To be clear, I don't think there's going to be tons of companies

[00:20:11] that will do this, but you'll see more and more companies doing this. You'll also see institutions

[00:20:17] starting to change their investment policies. So for example, pension funds to allow the purchase

[00:20:23] of Bitcoin ETFs. The reason why this is important, because when you have institutions like this,

[00:20:30] a lot of them, they just can't purchase Bitcoin or Bitcoin ETF. So they have to change their investment

[00:20:35] policy. That takes some time. You'll see that happening, but that will help the bullish sentiment.

[00:20:42] More investment advisors will start discussing Bitcoin ETF products with their client and suggesting

[00:20:47] a low single digit allocation. I know BlackRock recently came out saying that like one to 2% would be

[00:20:54] something that most investors should look at. Again, this is not investment advice. This is them

[00:21:00] saying that. Lastly, 2025 is going to be the calendar year after the Bitcoin halving. So it happened

[00:21:07] in April of this year. And during the calendar years of past halving, Bitcoin has performed very well.

[00:21:14] So there's only three instances. But again, in 2013, the year after the halving 2012, it went up

[00:21:21] 5,863%. In 2017, it went up around 1,285%. And in 2021, it went up around 60%. So we'll have to see

[00:21:33] whether 2025 is like that. But that is, you know, one of the reason I think it may reach 200,000.

[00:21:40] And for the 40% drawdown, I just think there's going to be some sort of unforeseen event that will

[00:21:46] happen in 2025 that will rock the markets. You'll see equity markets being down, but Bitcoin being

[00:21:53] as volatile as it is, and people being levered as they are with Bitcoin. You'll see that move even

[00:22:00] bigger with Bitcoin because you'll see a lot of levered longs being liquidated, which will push the

[00:22:07] price even further and will create that 40% decline. So that's the reasoning behind it.

[00:22:12] I like the boldness. That's the point of the show. My comment on this is I believe this can only go

[00:22:18] one way. You said it can happen in either order. Yeah. I don't think it's got to hit 200k first.

[00:22:26] And then the draw, I don't see it going on a 40% either. Yeah. Yeah. We'll see. I'm trying to give

[00:22:32] myself a little more leeway to hit it. I think that's pretty, I think that's almost zero percent

[00:22:37] event anyways of it going down 40 and then hitting 200k. I don't see that, but Hey, we'll have to see.

[00:22:43] That's why it's bold. I think it would have more chance of happening in the next like three years

[00:22:47] because Bitcoin has been famously like volatile and you know, 20% corrections. Like it's like

[00:22:53] nothing burger for Bitcoin. So 40% happens a lot more frequently than people can imagine even 50,

[00:23:01] 60%. But yeah, it would be pretty, pretty amazing that it would happen next year.

[00:23:07] And Hey, look, it can happen in equity markets too. Oh yeah. Oh yeah. And it has. So people forget

[00:23:15] about that. Yeah. It's when you think of like how well it's done now, it seems a lot easier. That

[00:23:20] could have, it could be another double here rather than it correcting 40% now down to 60k and then having

[00:23:25] to go like 3.3 X up to 200. So I mean, yeah, that would be wild. Yeah. A 200k only fart, only fart coin.

[00:23:34] Yeah, exactly. Or yeah. Or hawk to a coin and then plunge 90%. Rug pull coin. Yeah. So Brayden,

[00:23:44] it's your turn. All right. Mine is called private markets, go retail. So this is a little bit hard.

[00:23:51] It's just one of those ones where I'm hesitant to bring as a bold prediction because it's hard to

[00:23:55] quantify. Like we'll be sitting here this time next year and going kind of, sort of, but I do think

[00:24:00] that for it to be right, the trend has to be obvious. Like we're in consensus. Yep. This has

[00:24:05] happened. We've seen players do this. And so it's private markets go after retail because incentives

[00:24:12] rule the world. So it's no secret that flows to private capital markets have seen tremendous

[00:24:18] growth. So some data from EY is 9.7 trillion in private markets to now over 25 trillion in, uh,

[00:24:28] since 2012. So that covers private debt, hedge funds, private equity, venture family offices, right?

[00:24:37] Private equity in particular during that time has grown from 1.9 trillion to 5.3 trillion.

[00:24:45] Last week, BlackRock, which is mostly known for public equity, which I was today years old

[00:24:54] when I realized that BlackRock was spun out of Blackstone 30 years ago, by the way, I can't

[00:25:01] believe I didn't know that because everyone's like, ah, they're not the same company. You're

[00:25:05] thinking of the wrong company. No, they were the same company 30 years ago. Anyways, that's,

[00:25:10] that's one for the TikToker, uh, conspiracy theorists to go after. So BlackRock last week or

[00:25:16] two weeks ago now bought HPS, which is HPS investment partners is a private credit company.

[00:25:23] Uh, they also bought global infrastructure partners in October. One's private credit,

[00:25:28] one's private equity HPS partners. They just bought for $12 billion. Why, why is that? You can make

[00:25:36] way more money. That's it. You can charge a way higher management fee on what are called

[00:25:43] alts, alternatives, everything else, ex, ex publics and ETF fees have gone lower and lower and lower.

[00:25:52] And there's been more and more competition. So it's not just the race to zero on fees. There's also

[00:25:57] just, you know, everyone in their dog spinning up ETFs. Look, I mean, there are way, way more

[00:26:05] US ETF listings now than US public stock listings. Oh, for sure. I mean, there are single stock ETFs,

[00:26:12] right? There's like double single stock ETFs. There's like what? 2X levered long NVIDIA ETFs,

[00:26:18] which is just one stock. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Covered calls, 2X micro strategy. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:26:24] Yeah. Yeah, exactly. Vegan ETF. Don't forget about that one. Yeah. Yeah. And these products

[00:26:29] are freaking amazing. You know, we've had, you know, Fidelity in 2024 sponsor the pod, BMO sponsoring

[00:26:36] the pod in 2025. Like we love telling the world about low cost index ETFs for these big companies

[00:26:44] like BlackRock. Here is the one chart to describe my trend here. So the compound, which is run by Josh

[00:26:53] Brown. So shout out to Josh Brown for posting this on LinkedIn last week. Here's a crazy chart. Okay.

[00:27:00] The assets under management for BlackRock is 11.5 trillion. Blackstone, the private equity company

[00:27:09] is only 1.1 trillion. So 11 times the AUM for BlackRock compared to Blackstone. Blackstone has a

[00:27:23] larger market cap than BlackRock by $47 billion. So you got 10X the AUM and a smaller market cap.

[00:27:35] Why? Because you can charge way fatter fees on this type of AUM. So the prediction is in 2025,

[00:27:45] we're going to see from every major broker, advisor networks, robo advisors, every platform that touches

[00:27:52] retail. Because BlackRock, you know, call it 5 trillion of ETF touching retail and advisor networks

[00:28:00] and these platforms, they're going after the higher fees because going down to compete on two basis

[00:28:09] points is not good business anymore. This is where the management fee profits are. It's going to go to

[00:28:15] alts. You're going to see the brokers, the Robin Hoods of the world. I think we saw it with Wealth

[00:28:22] Simple and Canada promoting private equity. So-

[00:28:27] And private credit.

[00:28:28] These trends are already-

[00:28:28] And private credit.

[00:28:30] You're seeing now BlackRock that touches all these people just do these two acquisitions in the last

[00:28:34] two months, going back to their days in the story of being part of Blackstone and private equity.

[00:28:40] That's the big trend right now with retail. Calling it now.

[00:28:43] Okay. And that's bold. Yeah. I didn't think you would go there for private equity and private

[00:28:50] credits. So no, I think-

[00:28:52] I don't think it's good for retail.

[00:28:54] Yeah.

[00:28:54] Yeah.

[00:28:54] No, no. I mean, I didn't expect you to have that prediction. It was more that, but no,

[00:28:59] I agree with you. I think we, I was pretty critical of Wealth Simple mostly because what

[00:29:05] their offering doesn't look all that great. And I think a lot of people, I think one of the big

[00:29:09] downsides with private equity is you end up being locked in for long periods of time on top of the

[00:29:15] high fees. And I think a lot of people tend to forget about that. And there's been a lot of

[00:29:20] unhappy institutional investor in the last few years that could not get out of these investments

[00:29:27] because the exit strategy was no longer there. So whether it was going public, whether it was,

[00:29:33] selling it to another buyer, whatever it was, they were having trouble exiting. So what ended up

[00:29:40] happening is they would roll it into another fund or extend the duration of the fund. So that is one

[00:29:46] of the risks that we've seen in the last few years.

[00:29:48] Retail, retail, and a combination of liquidity lockups and high management fees mixes like oil

[00:29:57] and water. Terrible. To be fair with Wealth Simple, I guess they make it very obvious.

[00:30:04] That's the main risks of the fund. But we've seen them. Yeah, they had...

[00:30:10] Well, I think the private equity might have been 20... They did this a while ago, I think.

[00:30:14] By a while, I mean maybe late 2023, but it might have been 2024. And then the private credit came

[00:30:20] out later. But I mean, yeah, they've been on top of this. And initially, I think you had to have

[00:30:25] $100,000. But now I think they even got rid of that. I don't know. I might be wrong on that,

[00:30:33] but you don't need like that $100,000 hurdle or whatever you used to need.

[00:30:36] See, that's the trend, Dan. That's the trend. The 100K barrier going away, that's the trend.

[00:30:43] It'll go to 10 and then it'll... Eventually, it'll be fucking fractional shares of alts.

[00:30:50] Yeah. Dude, like this is my prediction right now.

[00:30:55] It's not a bad one. It's not a bad one. So I guess, Dan, do you want to do your second one?

[00:31:02] Yeah. The one thing I'll clarify with the private equity, you had to have $100,000 or more in total

[00:31:08] account value before they would open it up to you. Oh, okay.

[00:31:11] So I'm not exactly sure if that still stands. I seem to remember them reducing it, but I'm not 100%

[00:31:17] right on... I'm not 100% on that. But my second prediction would be that Shopify will overtake Royal

[00:31:26] Bank as Canada's largest company, but keep its status. So I mean, a lot of people might not think

[00:31:32] this is bold, but there is actually a long multi-decade...

[00:31:37] There's essentially curse of what... There is a absolute curse of whatever company

[00:31:44] overtakes Royal Bank and it just doesn't end up working very well for them moving forward.

[00:31:49] But I think in 2025, I do believe Shopify will do it and it will stick.

[00:31:54] So there's two reasons I believe this. I mean, for one, Shopify has a ton of momentum right now,

[00:31:59] certainly picking up steam, market share growing. They're finally profitable. They're putting out

[00:32:04] pretty solid cashflow. But the other reason for this would be that Royal Bank is sitting on 15

[00:32:11] plus year highs when it comes to valuation. I think at the time of recording this, I think they're

[00:32:15] trading at close to 16X earnings and 10-year averages are around 12.5. So the company is...

[00:32:23] It's quite a bit more expensive than it typically is. So I think that doesn't necessarily mean I think

[00:32:30] Royal Bank will go down, but I believe it could potentially have a flat year, potentially even a

[00:32:34] down year as well as it kind of grows into that valuation and traces back down to its historical

[00:32:39] averages. So I do believe Shopify will do this in 2025. That's kind of the bold prediction part of it,

[00:32:46] but I think it's kind of inevitable that it will do it eventually. And again, for this curse...

[00:32:53] So it's a pretty well-known curse in the TSX world. If you overtake Royal Bank as Canada's largest

[00:32:59] company, you end up getting absolutely thrashed after doing so. So I'll go through a few examples.

[00:33:07] So the first one would have been Nortel. They overtook Royal Bank.

[00:33:13] Oh boy.

[00:33:14] We all know how well that ended the stock went bankrupt 2009. But in 2008, BlackBerry became the

[00:33:22] largest company in the country, overpassed Royal Bank. Smartphones obviously dominated the market.

[00:33:27] Competitors came in, effectively torched the company. It fell from $244 a share to just $50

[00:33:34] per share in less than two years. So it overtook Royal Bank. And less than two years later,

[00:33:41] it's down about 80%. So Suncor briefly surpassed Royal Bank during the financial crisis at the top of

[00:33:48] what was a bit of a commodity super cycle during the pre-financial crisis. The company then fell

[00:33:54] from $73 a share to under $23 in a matter of three or four months after the financial crisis kicked in.

[00:34:02] And then the final situation, we have Shopify in 2020. And I mean, it's funny, if you Google

[00:34:07] Shopify Royal Bank curse, you can still find articles highlighting the fact that Shopify surpassed

[00:34:14] Royal Bank. And many of these analysts were wondering if the curse would be put to bed, but

[00:34:18] it wasn't because Shopify would go to lose 75% of its value since overtaking it. Again, this time,

[00:34:25] I think it will be here to stay. The overtaking will also be driven by fundamentals rather than

[00:34:31] speculation. I think in a lot of the other instances like Nortel, BlackBerry, Suncor,

[00:34:36] like there was a lot, these were all during, you know, pretty speculative markets.

[00:34:41] Dan, you are forgetting one. And I'm wondering if either of you can remember-

[00:34:46] Another one that surpassed?

[00:34:48] Had a very similar fate.

[00:34:51] I have no idea.

[00:34:51] When, what time period would have been-

[00:34:54] 2014, I want to say. 2014, 2015 is my guess.

[00:35:00] No, I don't know.

[00:35:01] I should look it up after.

[00:35:03] Uh, no. I mean, I feel like it's energy related, but-

[00:35:07] Well, I know-

[00:35:07] Pharma. It's pharma related.

[00:35:09] Oh, no. Okay.

[00:35:11] It's bio-

[00:35:11] It's on the tip of your tongue.

[00:35:12] Yeah, bio-

[00:35:13] BioVail, was it back then?

[00:35:16] Valiant Pharmaceuticals.

[00:35:17] Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.

[00:35:18] That's right, yeah.

[00:35:19] Valiant Pharmaceuticals passed RBC in that timeframe. And that has been a disaster too. That's another

[00:35:27] one. There's like a legitimate curse.

[00:35:29] Well, I know there were, there was another one that I didn't mention because they don't

[00:35:33] no longer trade, but Potash Corporation, before they merged with Agrium, there was one point

[00:35:37] where they exceeded as well. And, uh, they, yeah, didn't work out too well afterwards.

[00:35:43] But I mean, the one crazy thing about this is Royal Bank, like we're going back 30 years

[00:35:50] and it's always been Royal Bank at the top of the TSX for so long. So like I took the

[00:35:56] largest companies in the US 30 years ago. So we have, you know, ExxonMobil, Coca-Cola,

[00:36:00] Walmart, and Raytheon. And Walmart is the only company that's now in the top 15 in 2024.

[00:36:08] Every other company is out. Whereas Canada, it's been Royal Bank, like constantly.

[00:36:14] Banks, baby.

[00:36:14] Yeah.

[00:36:15] That's why we love our dividends.

[00:36:16] It's the same composition, really.

[00:36:18] Yeah.

[00:36:19] Yeah. Yeah. And I guess the one thing I'll add here just to provide people with more

[00:36:24] context. So I don't think you mentioned the market caps for the two currently.

[00:36:28] Yeah. So, uh, 240 billion, I think for Royal and 200 for Shopify.

[00:36:33] Yeah.

[00:36:33] So we need about a, you know, a 20% swing.

[00:36:37] Yeah.

[00:36:37] Yeah.

[00:36:37] Yeah.

[00:36:38] Yeah.

[00:36:38] Both of them.

[00:36:39] Yeah.

[00:36:39] So we need about a 20% swing for it to happen.

[00:36:42] Okay. Okay. Well, you know, if those, uh, pre-con condos in Toronto keep blowing

[00:36:48] up and they have a lot of exposure, uh, maybe they'll do the work for you.

[00:36:53] The bold thing here is it's sticking.

[00:36:58] Cause I think it's, it's going to happen.

[00:36:59] But the fact, if it sticks, that's a bold thing.

[00:37:02] Cause nobody, nobody's been able to do it for, you know, 30 years.

[00:37:05] It's going to be some Toby scandal as soon as it happens.

[00:37:07] So how many days would you have to get it in 2025 for it to stick?

[00:37:14] You mean like how long Shopify stays above?

[00:37:16] Yeah.

[00:37:17] Yeah. Exactly.

[00:37:18] I actually think that Shopify will overtake it.

[00:37:21] Just got to finish the year.

[00:37:22] Quite quickly in 2025.

[00:37:25] I do think just because I do think Royal bank's gotten up there a bit.

[00:37:28] So I do think it'll happen pretty early, but then I think it'll stick throughout

[00:37:31] 2025 and into 2026.

[00:37:33] Okay.

[00:37:34] So let's say it has to finish a year high.

[00:37:36] It has to finish the year higher.

[00:37:37] Yeah.

[00:37:38] Yeah.

[00:37:38] Or when we record our bold predictions next year.

[00:37:41] So a couple of weeks before the end of the year.

[00:37:45] Okay.

[00:37:45] Sounds good.

[00:37:47] Braden, anything else to add before I go to my second one?

[00:37:50] No.

[00:37:50] Okay.

[00:37:50] Let's do it.

[00:37:51] So let me refresh my mind on this one.

[00:37:54] No, no, I know.

[00:37:54] Yeah.

[00:37:55] So BC will cut its dividend by at least 66.67%.

[00:38:01] So two thirds currently pays a dividend of 3.99 CAD per share, which is yielding more than

[00:38:08] 11% as of this recording.

[00:38:11] So I think the market is definitely, you know, pricing that in.

[00:38:15] So my bold prediction, it'll be cut by two thirds or more.

[00:38:20] And, you know, I know I've been seeing this for a while.

[00:38:24] I mean, I've been seeing it for a better part than a year.

[00:38:26] So I think it's definitely a high probability.

[00:38:29] You don't get a 11% dividend by accident.

[00:38:32] So to make it even more bold, I'll say that they'll cut their dividend by at least two thirds,

[00:38:37] but also they'll have total returns of at least 15% in 2025.

[00:38:44] And we'll show a lot of dividend focused investors that actually a lower dividend can give you

[00:38:51] better total returns.

[00:38:52] Yeah, this is, I mean, the main thing with a lot of them is the fact that if they cut the

[00:38:57] dividend, the stock is going to bomb.

[00:38:59] But I think for the most part, it looks to be-

[00:39:02] I think it's going to rebound.

[00:39:02] I think it goes up.

[00:39:03] I was just about to ask you guys this.

[00:39:05] Does Bell stock go up with that announcement?

[00:39:09] I believe so.

[00:39:10] I think so.

[00:39:10] Yeah.

[00:39:11] Yeah, as long as they mention that they'll tackle a big portion, they'll use a big portion

[00:39:17] of the proceeds to tackle the debt.

[00:39:19] Obviously, they would use a portion to also for the growth plan.

[00:39:23] I know they're trying to, obviously, they're trying to expand in the US too.

[00:39:26] So I think it'll be a mix of the both.

[00:39:29] But as long as they use, let's say, half of the cut towards reducing debt, I think investors

[00:39:34] will definitely reward them for doing so.

[00:39:37] They need to have a throw it all out quarter, which is basically you announce all the bad

[00:39:44] news in one quarter.

[00:39:45] You advise the guidance.

[00:39:47] You cut the dividend.

[00:39:48] You tell investors straight.

[00:39:49] You shake up the team.

[00:39:51] You need to have-

[00:39:52] It's like when a management team of a sports franchise blows it up.

[00:39:57] They need to have one of those quarters.

[00:39:58] Yeah.

[00:39:59] A rebuild.

[00:40:00] Yeah, exactly.

[00:40:01] And to give people a bit more context, if they do achieve 15% total returns in 2025,

[00:40:09] it would make it the best year for BC in over five years.

[00:40:14] The move would free up more than $600 million in cash every single quarter if they did it

[00:40:21] by at least two thirds.

[00:40:22] BC says that, you know, again, with the expansion in the US, I think that would be a big move

[00:40:29] there.

[00:40:30] BC currently pays more than $900 million in dividend every single quarter.

[00:40:35] It doesn't cover it with a free cash flow either.

[00:40:38] And some rough math is showing that BC is paying approximately 4% on average for its interest

[00:40:45] in terms of interest payments on its overall debt of $40 billion.

[00:40:48] So that clearly will go up as they refinance debt next year.

[00:40:52] And then using, let's just say, on a per year basis, about $1.2 billion per year towards

[00:40:59] debt repayment would say that they would save approximately $48 million each year in interest

[00:41:06] payments alone.

[00:41:07] So that's a lot of saving, especially when it starts compounding in terms of saving.

[00:41:11] So I think it's the right move to do.

[00:41:13] Of course, for those relying on dividends from BC, they won't like it.

[00:41:18] But to me, it is a no brainer for them to do if they have a, you know, if management team

[00:41:24] there actually starts thinking a bit more longer term, this is what they have to do.

[00:41:30] But I've been pretty critical of this management team.

[00:41:33] I think I haven't seen such an incompetent management team in quite some time.

[00:41:38] Uh, it's like every single move, it's like one dumb move after the other.

[00:41:43] They can't seem to do the right thing.

[00:41:46] So we'll see whether they do it or not.

[00:41:48] But if they start looking at it more long-term, uh, this is a no brainer for me.

[00:41:53] Yeah.

[00:41:53] I mean, they had the, what was it?

[00:41:56] The, uh, the MLSE sale.

[00:41:58] And then they said, they said they were going to pay down debt.

[00:42:01] So the stock went up and then they went and blew the money like a month later and actually

[00:42:05] issued more debt.

[00:42:06] And then the stock went down.

[00:42:07] So, I mean, if they cut the dividend, are they going to allocate it?

[00:42:11] You know, if they say they're going to allocate it to debt, I think you would see a lot of

[00:42:14] positive reaction, but then do they actually do that is the question.

[00:42:18] Yeah, that's that.

[00:42:19] Or do they just try to expand more?

[00:42:22] They'll find a way to mess it up.

[00:42:23] Yeah.

[00:42:23] They'll find a way to mess it up.

[00:42:26] Yeah.

[00:42:26] I mean, it's, it's been, uh, we've been talking about this, I believe, since I came on the

[00:42:31] podcast, which is like late 2023.

[00:42:35] So it's been, it's been a long, long time.

[00:42:38] I, I think it's inevitable that it gets cut as well.

[00:42:41] And now just now analysts are starting to advocate for a dividend cut.

[00:42:46] So, uh, you heard it here first on the podcast.

[00:42:49] We've been talking about it for a year now that they should be cutting the dividend.

[00:42:53] And, um, you know, I think some analysts are good, but the fact that now it's just starting

[00:43:00] to.

[00:43:00] It's Canada's Intel.

[00:43:02] Yeah.

[00:43:02] I think so.

[00:43:03] I'm realizing exactly what it is.

[00:43:05] Yeah, pretty much.

[00:43:06] Yeah.

[00:43:06] I don't know if they've issued their 2025 guidance, but if they do, I don't even know if they'll

[00:43:11] issue 2025 guidance, but if they do and free cashflow is going to decline again, that's

[00:43:17] going to be nasty.

[00:43:18] Yeah.

[00:43:18] I don't think they have.

[00:43:20] I think they will, um, in the new year.

[00:43:21] I think they usually do in the new year.

[00:43:24] Yeah, exactly.

[00:43:25] And their cells are like, they revise a sales guidance and cells are actually declining this

[00:43:30] year.

[00:43:30] And a big part of the bold thesis for BCE, right?

[00:43:33] Earlier this year was people saying like, oh, population growth, population growth.

[00:43:38] People need cell phones.

[00:43:39] People need their services.

[00:43:41] Well, that went out way out the window with the announcements from the federal government

[00:43:45] this fall.

[00:43:46] So it's going to be a tough couple of years for BCE.

[00:43:49] Again, I think it's an iconic Canadian company.

[00:43:52] So I do hope they turn things around.

[00:43:54] I don't have a stake, but, um, they'll have to do things differently.

[00:43:58] Yeah.

[00:43:58] It's, it's one of those companies where you see the capital allocation decisions that

[00:44:03] have been in the last 12 months.

[00:44:04] And you're like, surely you guys thought like surely enough people were at the table where

[00:44:14] I'm just like, are we sure about this?

[00:44:18] Right?

[00:44:18] Like, are we really, is this really the right play?

[00:44:21] Like, how has there not been that like enough people saying something?

[00:44:26] Well, yeah.

[00:44:27] You surround yourself with yes people.

[00:44:29] That's what happens.

[00:44:30] Right.

[00:44:30] That's probably what it is.

[00:44:31] Yeah.

[00:44:31] All right.

[00:44:32] Last up.

[00:44:33] This is the last one, right?

[00:44:35] Yeah.

[00:44:35] That's the last one.

[00:44:36] Handed with a bang.

[00:44:37] Yeah.

[00:44:38] All right.

[00:44:38] Let's talk about the degenerate economy.

[00:44:41] Okay.

[00:44:42] I've never heard it called that before.

[00:44:44] That's hilarious.

[00:44:44] I'm going to the casino tonight.

[00:44:46] So I like it.

[00:44:47] This is very fitting.

[00:44:47] Yeah.

[00:44:48] I am playing poker tonight.

[00:44:50] I want to play some poker.

[00:44:51] I mean, my buddy's been talking about playing more Hold'em and I've gotten a bit of a love

[00:44:55] for poker right now.

[00:44:57] I might, you know, YouTube, like if you like gain an interest in something, YouTube like

[00:45:02] thinks that's the only thing you care about when you go on the homepage.

[00:45:05] Like now my algorithm is just like watching Phil Ivey highlights like over and over and

[00:45:09] over again.

[00:45:10] And I'm here for it, dude.

[00:45:12] I like it.

[00:45:13] You could learn from the web from worse players than that.

[00:45:16] I'll just say that.

[00:45:16] Yeah.

[00:45:16] Him and Daniel Negreanu, the Canadian.

[00:45:19] He's fucking great, man.

[00:45:20] I like those guys.

[00:45:21] Anyways, the degenerate economy coined by Howard Lindzen, who is a venture investor.

[00:45:27] He's on my cap table.

[00:45:28] He sits on the Finchak cap table.

[00:45:30] His partner sits on my board.

[00:45:32] I think that in 2025, well, I'll spit out some numbers at the end here in terms of my prediction.

[00:45:41] But for some context, sports gambling, for example, is an industry that has gone absolutely

[00:45:47] gangbusters.

[00:45:49] I think it's actually epidemic with young men.

[00:45:51] Unfortunately, the online sports betting market is estimated at 48.17 billion in 2024.

[00:45:59] It's expected to reach 83.58 billion by 2029, sourced by R&M.

[00:46:07] Current growth rates I'm actually seeing with some of these bigger players.

[00:46:10] This might even be a conservative number, to be honest, that 2029 number.

[00:46:15] So, look, everyone likes throwing the odd bet down.

[00:46:20] Like, you know, I'm not the Grinch here, right?

[00:46:25] Like, this is fine.

[00:46:26] But everyone also knows someone who likes to throw the odd too many bets down, right?

[00:46:34] Oh, yeah.

[00:46:35] And this is an epidemic for young men.

[00:46:38] And the degenerate economy is net bad.

[00:46:41] It's like the anti-Charlie Munger basket of stocks, right?

[00:46:46] Like, he's vocal about these types of businesses being bad for society.

[00:46:50] He was very vocal about it.

[00:46:51] We're going into a pretty lax administration regulation-wise with these types of businesses.

[00:46:58] And the degenerate economy to date is alive and well.

[00:47:02] Let's just use the two sports company examples.

[00:47:05] DraftKings total revenue is up 255% since December 2021, growing at a 60% CAGR.

[00:47:14] Flutter Entertainment, which owns FanDuel, since that same time frame, sportsbook revenue,

[00:47:21] which is the FanDuel segment of Flutter Entertainment, has grown 215%, compounding at 77.6% year over year.

[00:47:31] I think they own PokerStars too.

[00:47:33] Yeah, they do.

[00:47:34] Yeah, yeah.

[00:47:35] Yeah, they have their segments show like different types of gaming, sportsbook being FanDuel.

[00:47:41] I don't know if they have anything else tucked in there.

[00:47:43] I'm assuming that's most, if not all of the revenue.

[00:47:46] FanDuel is massive now.

[00:47:47] Yeah.

[00:47:48] And the market's really consolidated into a lot of these bigger players, DraftKings and FanDuel.

[00:47:54] Of course, there's a lot of different players.

[00:47:55] But these are the ones that have been able to endure extremely high cost of acquisition costs for a really long time, which is a very hard thing to do.

[00:48:07] But, you know, you come out with a pretty big prize if you do it, you know, a la Uber, for example.

[00:48:14] So it's going to be hard to quantify, but let's just let's use a basket.

[00:48:18] I'm stealing from Howie, his basket, but I want it to be more selective.

[00:48:21] I'm going to say DraftKings, Flutter, Robinhood, Coinbase and CME Markets, which is the options trading company.

[00:48:30] Basically, the casino is where the speculation happens as a basket outperforms QQQ by a wide margin.

[00:48:38] And that's I'm not putting any money into it.

[00:48:41] I don't want to own these businesses, but I would not be surprised if Trump 2025, the degenerate economy, the Philip Morris Zinn economy goes gangbusters next year.

[00:48:54] You should put Dogecoin in there.

[00:48:57] Yeah, Doge, Funkcoin.

[00:49:00] Yeah, like all these.

[00:49:01] But I mean, I think it's I love the prediction.

[00:49:04] I think unfortunately, I think what we've seen with the pandemic is when everything was closed down.

[00:49:11] Right.

[00:49:11] It really led people to look at the stock market to gamble for a lot of people.

[00:49:16] And that's why we saw a lot of these like crappy companies or meme stocks completely run up.

[00:49:22] And then it bled into, you know, I'll turn like out out coins or shit coins, whatever you want to call them.

[00:49:28] Meme coins.

[00:49:29] You also saw it like Dan did a good post recently calling out, you know, paid promotion for stock pumping from someone doing on YouTube.

[00:49:40] And Brayden, you remember like we would get emails all the time from junior miners.

[00:49:44] Yeah, junior miners.

[00:49:45] Like, you know, I think FaceDrive did that to like companies like trying to pay you to basically pitch a stock to your audience.

[00:49:53] Yeah.

[00:49:54] And they pay a lot like they pay like five digits for that stuff.

[00:49:58] And we've always said no's because it's not ethical on the one hand.

[00:50:02] And on the other hand, it just completely destroys your, you know, your credibility as well.

[00:50:07] So but long ran to say that, unfortunately, it's something we've seen happen like since the pandemic started.

[00:50:14] And it's I don't know, it seems like it's starting to big back up now in the back half of 2024 leading into 2025.

[00:50:22] Oh, yeah.

[00:50:23] And I think the big issue is a lot of these major sports companies like allowing people to do this.

[00:50:31] I mean, you look at like Sportsnet.

[00:50:33] I mean, now over the last few years, like there's money lines broadcast.

[00:50:37] Yeah, there's money line.

[00:50:38] They literally broadcast the money lines like the prop bets like, you know, they give you the odds.

[00:50:45] They tell you like it's just constant.

[00:50:48] And I mean, you know, even Oilers, they have they put the Play Alberta like gambling sponsorships right on their jerseys.

[00:50:58] I mean, it's just even all the podcasts like I listen to a lot of hockey podcasts, almost every single one of them has DraftKings sponsoring the podcast.

[00:51:08] And they go through and talk about like bets they're making and all that type of stuff.

[00:51:11] And I mean, it's just it's right in front of your face.

[00:51:14] And I mean, I can't believe they don't eventually severely, you know, regular regulatory wise, like they don't severely regret this in the future.

[00:51:22] It's they've they've done such a good job with these types of things to be extremely addicting and like gambling being addicting is into humans is not a new thing.

[00:51:33] I mean, that's like, you know, since the dawn of civilization.

[00:51:37] But like when it's on a screen and the colors and like the Vegas slot machine is becomes this thing that's just on your phone.

[00:51:48] Yeah. Like that is where it gets really dangerous and particularly for young men.

[00:51:53] The studies show, right?

[00:51:55] This is this is a primarily young men issue when it comes to abuse.

[00:52:00] Like that's that is who it's most affected by.

[00:52:03] And back in the day, right, you had to go physically to like a sports book or the casino to actually play his bed.

[00:52:10] And that act of going some friction.

[00:52:13] Yeah. For some friction. I mean, if it's going my if it's minus 30 outside, you're in Canada.

[00:52:19] You may not want to go and go. Yeah, exactly.

[00:52:22] So there was some friction. And I guess the other thing we saw this year explode is Polymarket.

[00:52:27] Yeah. Polymarket. If we're talking about like betting.

[00:52:31] Perfect example, Simone. Perfect.

[00:52:33] Yeah, exactly. That one really, really blew off.

[00:52:36] And for those not familiar with Polymarket, it's using like kind of blockchain and assigning a value to different, you know, tokens based on what the odds are.

[00:52:46] Like just to simplify it, that's how Polymarket works.

[00:52:49] And I mean, the U.S. election probably blew it right off.

[00:52:53] Like it's really it really took off this year.

[00:52:56] I mean, it's offering these kinds of bet on anything.

[00:53:01] I don't know what you call Polymarket.

[00:53:03] Yeah.

[00:53:03] Bet on events.

[00:53:05] I don't know what there's a name for it, but you know what I mean?

[00:53:08] Yeah, you can bet on anything like, look, it could be you can probably go on there.

[00:53:13] I'm going to venture to say that, you know, bet on when a election will be triggered in Canada.

[00:53:18] Oh, yeah.

[00:53:19] Probably a bet for that.

[00:53:21] Will Trudeau resign?

[00:53:23] Yeah.

[00:53:23] Yes or no.

[00:53:25] That is like a prop you could throw on.

[00:53:27] It's, you know what it is?

[00:53:30] When I was growing up, it was very socially acceptable to put on these crazy Super Bowl bets.

[00:53:38] The Super Bowl was the one time a year where everyone said, screw it.

[00:53:45] I'm, you know, the Gatorade is going to be orange.

[00:53:47] I know it.

[00:53:49] You know, slant, lock that shit in.

[00:53:51] You know, like the first point is going to be scored by a tight end, throw, lock it in.

[00:53:58] That with everything is, you know, it's a Wednesday night game.

[00:54:04] And that's, that's the, you know, it's the Super Bowl bet.

[00:54:08] You know, the, the broadcast is talking about it.

[00:54:11] Everyone's doing it.

[00:54:12] You got your phone on one, checking your bets.

[00:54:14] And look, I have FanDuel on my phone.

[00:54:19] I have a Super Bowl bet.

[00:54:21] I took the Eagles at 10 to one.

[00:54:23] I'm not saying I'm a saint here.

[00:54:25] What I'm saying is that there is obviously going to be abuse and the degenerate economy of extremely speculative garbage that people will put their money into.

[00:54:35] The house always wins, aka, aka these companies are going to have big, big profits.

[00:54:44] You know, the, the DraftKings, the Flutters, the Hoods, the Coins, the CMEs.

[00:54:48] Yeah, and it's also probably a reflection of people trying to go for long shots to achieve whatever their financial goal is.

[00:54:57] So whether it's purchasing a house, whatever it might be, achieving financial independence, which is maybe a bit of reflection of where, you know, society is at right now, which is a little bit sad to say that, you know, we tend to invest with a long-term horizon and diversify, have different, you know, assets in our portfolio.

[00:55:16] And the reality is a lot of younger people just want to make these bets because in their view, it's the only way that they can afford a down payment for a house or whatever it is.

[00:55:27] And then they get into this destructive spiral.

[00:55:31] That's it.

[00:55:32] Yeah.

[00:55:33] Yeah, absolutely.

[00:55:35] Good, good, good wrap up, guys.

[00:55:37] This is, this was good.

[00:55:38] So just, just to summarize.

[00:55:41] So Simone, the bell dividend cut the Bitcoin 200K.

[00:55:46] We got Canadian from Dan, Canadian dollar multi-decade lows, the bold 63 cents coming in.

[00:55:54] Shopify overtaking RBC.

[00:55:56] You said, what is that around?

[00:55:57] It's 20% spread today.

[00:55:59] And finished the year there.

[00:56:01] Yeah.

[00:56:01] Yeah.

[00:56:02] And finished the year there.

[00:56:03] I said, private markets go retail.

[00:56:05] Just follow the incentives.

[00:56:06] This is, this is going to happen.

[00:56:08] And the degenerate economy, some of these companies where they benefit from people making extreme speculation are going to have monster, monster years.

[00:56:20] Thanks for listening to the podcast, folks.

[00:56:22] We massively appreciate you tuning in over the holidays.

[00:56:27] Send this to your friends.

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[00:56:31] The show goes on.

[00:56:32] We're going to hit episode 500 in 2025, which is pretty amazing.

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[00:56:45] So we appreciate them.

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[00:56:47] And we will see you in the new year.

[00:56:50] Have a wonderful holidays to all.

[00:56:53] The Canadian Investor Podcast should not be construed as investment or financial advice.

[00:56:58] The hosts and guests featured may own securities or assets discussed on this podcast.

[00:57:04] Always do your own due diligence or consult with a financial professional before making any financial or investment decisions.