In this episode of The Canadian Macro Investor, Simon and Dan start with the stunning resignation of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang following an escalating scandal involving alleged Chinese intelligence ties and a separate relationship with a direct report. They discuss Nvidiaâs unusual management structure, the key-person risk created by Huangâs departure, who could potentially replace him and whether tighter U.S. restrictions on Chinaâs access to Nvidia chips and AI compute could become the bigger long-term issue for investors.
They then turn to inflation after hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI data pushed markets toward pricing another Federal Reserve rate hike. Simon and Dan discuss how elevated diesel and food costs are working their way through the economy, why producer-price inflation could keep consumer inflation sticky into 2027, and whether the Bank of Canada may also be forced to hike in order to prevent further weakness in the Canadian dollar.
The conversation then shifts to Canadaâs federal budget and its attempt to reshape where capital flows in the economy. They discuss incentives designed to funnel foreign investment toward new housing rather than existing homes, changes to immigration and permanent residency, the Productivity Mega Deduction, and roughly $50 billion of investment aimed at expanding Canadaâs electricity system.
Finally, Simon and Dan look at the growing tension between Ottawaâs infrastructure ambitions and deteriorating provincial finances. Ontarioâs credit outlook has been revised to negative, municipalities are struggling to fund infrastructure, and the federal government may increasingly become the backstop if provincial borrowing conditions worsen. They finish by discussing whether Canada can use its housing obsession in a more productive wayâdirecting capital toward actually building new supply while gradually diversifying the economy away from real estate over the long term.
Stocks discussed: NVDA, ASML, AP.UN.TO
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