In this episode, Simon and Daniel break down the sudden surge in bond yields and what it could be signaling about inflation, interest rates, and consumer stress.
They start by looking at the latest Canadian CPI data and why inflation may not be fully reflecting the impact of higher fuel prices yet. Simon highlights key takeaways from Walmart, Lowe’s, and Home Depot earnings, including rising transportation costs, weaker DIY demand, and signs that lower-income consumers are becoming increasingly stretched.
The discussion then shifts to the bond market, including the sharp rise in U.S. 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year yields, changing Fed rate expectations, and why markets may be pricing in more persistent inflation risk. Simon and Daniel also touch on Japanese government bond yields, the yen carry trade, and why a disorderly unwind could matter for global markets.
They wrap up by connecting higher bond yields to the Canadian housing market, mortgage renewals, variable-rate risk, and the growing financial pressure facing homeowners as higher mortgage payments collide with rising food and fuel costs.
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