In this episode of The Canadian Macro Investor Podcast, Simon and Dan break down the latest Bank of Canada rate decision and monetary policy report. They discuss why the Bank of Canada held rates steady, how the bond market is increasingly driving borrowing costs, and why housing is becoming a more important risk in the central bank’s outlook.
They also look at Canada’s increasingly divided housing market, with Ontario and B.C. under pressure while several other provinces continue to hit new highs. The discussion covers condo weakness in Toronto and Vancouver, the impact of unsold inventory, rental market dynamics, CMHC MLI Select, and how mortgage products and government policy are shaping real estate investment.
From there, they shift to the U.S. rate outlook and why the Fed may have less room to raise rates than prediction markets or futures markets suggest. They discuss rising U.S. Treasury bill issuance, the potential role of stablecoins in creating demand for short-term government debt, and why higher inflation targets may become more politically and financially attractive over time.
Finally, they dig into the AI investment boom, including new Chinese open-weight models, pressure on OpenAI and Anthropic’s business models, data centre constraints, Tourmaline’s proposed Alberta data centre opportunity, and what semiconductor drawdowns may be signaling for broader markets.
Tickers discussed: TOU.TO, SMH, NVDA, TSM, AVGO, AMD, MU, ASML, META, QQQ
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